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Working Papers | 1993

On WACC Specifications and Capital Structure Decisions: Some Conceptual Propositions for Practicing Managers

Korwar Ashok and Ragunathan V

Recent advances in our understanding of capital structure decisions have not yet made their mark upon our capital budgeting techniques and practices. This paper attempts to bridge this gap. In doing this, it offers a surprisingly simple approach for managers to follow in marking financial decisions. The theory of corporate finance notes two alternative specifications of the weighted average cost of capital for discounting. In one, the cost of debt is specified in pre-tax terms while the tax shield on debt is accounted for in the cast flows. In another, the cost of debt is specified in after tax terms while the tax shield on interest is ignored in the cash flows. Theoretically the two alternative specifications of WACC and cash flows are considered equivalent. In practical terms, however, what concerns a manager is which of the two specifications he should employ in financial analysis. In this paper, we take the view that the first specification above is superior to the second one on several counts: for one, it is conceptually closer to our intuitive understanding of cost. Further, it facilitates taking explicit account of a number of important considerations such as certain costs which alone can explain capital structures not tending towards 100% debt. It also allows us to explicitly consider tax shields on interest only in time periods in which they can actually be absorbed; it permits us to handle bonds, common in India, where the coupon rate of interest is different from the yield to maturity; and to incorporate the loss in value from equity issues made below market price. This insight leads us to a resolution of the perennially vexing issue of how to value debt and leases. We go on to propose a simple two-step procedure for making financial decisions. This leads us, in conclusion, to call for a new and more meaningful distinction to replace the conventional distinction between investment decisions and financing decisions.

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Working Papers | 1993

Review of the Policy Changes in the Indian Telecom Sector: Implications for Decision Makers

Rekha Jain

In response to the business needs of faster, cheaper, and more varied modes of communication, the telecommunication sector in many countries has been undergoing rapid technological and structural changes over the past few years. Since the mid 80s, the telecommunication sector in India, too, has undergone major transformations. Private participation in the manufacture of end user equipment and services, reorganization of the monolithic Department of Telecommunication, and raising finances from the public for investment in the state owned factories and organizations have been some of the policy initiatives of the government. In a scenario where the features of the Indian telecom sector such as under-investment, amalgamation of regulatory and operational functions, ill-defined sector policies, and lack of financial and administrative autonomy are common to many other developing countries, the consequences of sectoral changes have implications both for decision makers at the national level as well as in other developing countries. This paper attempts to critically review the policy changes initiated by the government and draw lessons from them.

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Working Papers | 1993

Arima Model for and Forecasts on Tea Production in India

Gupta G S

The paper explains the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (Box-Jenkins) model in detail, develops an ARIMA model for tea production in India using monthly data for the period Jan. 1979 through July 1991, and applies the so developed model to forecast tea production during the future 12 months. On verification through several statistical techniques including the accuracy of sample period forecasts, the model is found to be quite strong. The post sample period forecasts are consistent with the seasonal pattern of the data in past 12 years and this enhances the model's credibility. As per the results, tea production in India during the post-sample one year is expected to be fluctuating between a low of 14,300 tonnes during Feb.-March 1992 to 90,600 tonnes in July 1992; the actual data for these periods are not yet available in published form.

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Working Papers | 1993

Indian Manufacturing Industry: The Growth Episode of the Eighties

Sengupta D N

Growth of Indian manufacturing in the 80s was market-driven: policy changes enabled an expansion in output in response to growth in demand. Output growth led to productivity increase which came from material and labor savings, in that order of importance. Ten percent of the productivity increase was retained as increased profits and the rest reflected in falling prices (in relation to overall prices). This further stimulated demand. There were some structural changes, like growth of the factory sector at the expense of the cottage sector and an increase in the industrial sector's ability to sustain its own growth. Industrial growth in itself did not worsen the b.o.p. situation. In fact, the balance of commodity trade improved, because output growth led to export growth which outpaced import growth. However, the relatively slow growth in imports was the result of Bombay High and may not be sustainable. Future strategy for industrial development should pursue growth and not multiple objectives. Other desirable outcomes would follow. Growth is most likely to be achieved by explicating the existing demand for consumer goods. This will pull up the demand for intermediate and capital goods also. Both industry and government should depend on volume growth for profits and revenues and keep prices and indirect taxes low. This is possible with continuous increases in productivity. Policies that expand markets, increase competition, promote technical progress, encourage human resources development and stimulate industrial investment will also increase productivity. A cautious view on imports seems advisable.

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Working Papers | 1993

A Study of Organizational Climate in Relation to Organizational Role Stress (ORS) and Learned Helplessness (LH)

Pestonjee D M and Desai Tripati Pande

The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between the factors of learned helplessness (LH) and organizational role stress (ORS) to the motivational climate of the organization. The sample comprised of two hundred and twenty respondents belonging to the middle management of five units of the engineering industry located in western India. Motivational Climate of the organization is analyzed by using MAO-C questionnaire (Pareek 1981) comprising of 60 statements employing twelve dimensions and six motives of the organization. Organizational Role Stress scale (Pareek 1981) is used to measure the stress the individual feels in the organization. It is a five point scale wherein 10 dimensions of stress are measured. Learned Helplessness scale (Pestonjee and Reddy, 1988) consisting of 24 items with a six-point rating format, is used to measure learned helplessness. Means and S.D.'s intercorrelations and regressions are used to interpret the data. From the results, we observe that Role Erosion was the highest contributor of stress in this group. The climate of the organization that is related to the trust among various members and groups seems to significantly affect the learned helplessness and stress of the executives. 'Management of rewards' was the other dimension of organizational climate which had a significant bearing on the dependent variables of learned helplessness (LH) and organizational role stress (ORS).

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of NAFTA on Indo-Canadian Trade

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Kumar N Ganesh

The changes in the global trading scenario, particularly the emergence of regional trading blocs have far reaching effects on world trade. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) comprising of Canada, Mexico and the USA s the latest one in this regard. It is feared that when NAFTA is in place it can adversely affect India's exports to the NAFTA countries. In this paper we examine the implications of NAFTA on the Indo-Canadian trade. We also critically evaluate the option of joining NAFTA for India.

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of the Sectoral Targets of India Eigth Five year Plan

Ravindra H. Dholakia

The paper examines critically the implications of the sectoral targets of income and employment growth coupled with the investment allocations as envisaged in India's Eighth Five Year Plan. The implications are worked out on the labor income per unit of investment, required economic rate of return on project investments and the rate of total factor productivity growth by sectors. As was the case with the Seventh Five Year Plan, the Eighth Plan also appears to lack consistency.

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Working Papers | 1993

Indian Economic Forecast March 1993

Rastogi A B

Although not spelt out by the Finance Minister as preparing ground for the EFF/ESAF loan from the IMF, it is a path-breaking budget with a strong emphasis on restructuring the economy and the augmenting supply side of the economy. The medium-term funding facility from the IMF/WB with concessional loan would act as insurance and paper over the ripples generated in the goods market and financial assets market due to restructuring of the economy. To ameliorate short term consequences on labor, the labor market reforms are being handled in a politically deft manner. The economic strategy in the medium term is quite clear, go for growth and supply side incentives and push for structural reform. Monetary policy of the government is quite tight and as inflation falls rapidly the government should bring down interest rates quickly to maintain the momentum of private sector investment to enhance productive capacity of the economy. The success of the reform programmes hinges on sustained growth of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors which is inexorable linked to productive investment in these sectors.

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Working Papers | 1993

Trappings of Expertise and the Pursuit of Failure

Ramanarayan S

In the past, people learnt about dealing with complex situations through life experiences. With the availability of computer simulations, it seems feasible to supplement 'life' as a teacher to foster learning about the challenges of complex, dynamic, and uncertain realities. This paper describes a computer simulation of a business organization used with 20 groups of participants. Each group had three members and was expected to manage 24 months of the organization in 3 hours of simulation time. The simulation threw up some interesting behavioral patterns, and provided some insights into the typical errors in the planning and decision making behaviors of specialists. For example, it was found that despite a flood of analysts, several specialists seemed hesitant to apply yardsticks, make choices, and take stands. So there was a strong tendency to avoid or postpone action taking. It was also found that each group developed a routine for data collection. Using the metaphor of 'control panel', the paper examines how routinization channelizes the attention of the group in certain directions and away from certain areas. Several implicit assumptions were identified which blocked the learning of groups from experience. The paper discusses the behavioral patterns reflective of the assumptions. For example, there was a strong tendency to shrink when things did not go as planned. They key concern was found to be with minimizing mistakes. The concluding section discusses some of the self-reflective comments of the participants and the role of organizational simulation exercises for management training. An attempt has been made to explore the notion of strategic orientation as heightened awareness of the choice points that one encounters. A strategic mind develops better understanding of the functioning of complex systems, and retains its flexibility with respect to the choice points rather than getting entrenched in set behavioral patterns.

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Working Papers | 1993

Dividend Decision: A Study of Managers Perceptions

Bhat Ramesh and Pandey I M

In finance literature several theoretical constructs have been proposed to explain the dividend policy of a company. Several empirical studies have been conducted to test these theories. Very few attempts have been made to understand the perceptions and attitudes of managers about the factors they think are important in determining dividend policy. It is with this objective that the present study purports to present the survey results. The study attempts to answer the following questions: 1. What factors do managers consider important in deciding their companies' dividend policy? 2. Do managers perceive a relationship between their companies' dividend policy and the value of the share? 3. Do managers consider last year's dividend policy relevant in deciding the current dividend policy? 4. Do managers think tax status of their shareholders as an important determinant of dividend policy? 5. Do managers use dividend policy as a signal for indicating the company's future prospects to shareholders? 6. Do managers consider dividend payment merely as a residue? This study used questionnaire to seek answers to above questions. The questionnaire was divided into two parts. Part I focused on determinants which managers consider important (on a seven point scale) in deciding their dividend policy. Part II of the questionnaire was devoted to managers' views (strong disagreement to strong agreement scale) on different issues which have implications for dividend policy. The questionnaire was sent to the Economic Times 250 top companies and was addressed to finance directors of these companies. This study reveals a number of interesting conclusions. First, it is shown that payment of dividend depends on current and expected earnings as well as the pattern of past dividends. This vindicates Lintner's findings in U.S.A. about forty years ago. Similar results are reported by Baker et. al. for U.S.A. companies in 1985. It is also pertinent to note that managers of companies in India would like their companies to continuously maintain payment of dividend. They do not consider liquidity to be a significant consideration in dividend policy. Second, managers consider that there s a positive relationship between payment of dividends and share price. However, it is surprising to find that they do not consider the purpose of dividend policy as maintaining or increasing share price. They strongly believe that companies should strive to maintain an uninterrupted record of dividend payments, and they should avoid making changes in dividend policy that might have to be reversed. Third, respondents in our survey do not seem to fully understand the clientele hypothesis. They, of course, do not deny the existence of high-payout clientele. Managers do consider dividend policy as a signaling device. Fourth, managers seem to prefer payment of dividend even if companies have profitable investment opportunities. Thus, they do not provide any support to dividend residual hypothesis. This is in tone with their perception that the dividend must be paid consistently and continuously.

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