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Working Papers | 1990

Expert System for Cost Variance Investigation

Jayanth R. Varma

In a typical standard costing or budgetary control system, a manager might receive a variance analysis reporting several hundred variances, of which many may have arisen due to random factors, or may be too insignificant to merit attention. The managers uses his knowledge and experience to identify the important variances which demand further investigation. Both management accounting theory and statistical decision theory can make significant contributions towards improving this decision, but both make extravagant demands on the manager in terms of the theoretical and factual knowledge expected of him. Much of this knowledge, even if available, is scattered throughout the organization with very little readily accessible to top management itself. This research takes the view that a knowledge. Base / Expert System approach can be useful in this context. An expert system was implemented in Turbo Prolog using fuzzy logic and MYCIN type certainty factors to handle uncertainty. Though traditional Prolog interpreters can be used directly to write Expert Systems without using an Expert System Shell, this is not the case with the Turbo Prolog compiler. It becomes necessary to write an interpreter/Expert System Shell in Turbo Prolog using some of the software tools (scanner and parser)available along with the Turbo Prolog compiler itself. The expert system was tried out on a case on cost variance investigation from a well known book on management control systems (Antony, Dearden and Bedford, 1984). The substantive performance of the system in this armchair case study was quite encouraging. In terms of speed and memory requirements, the system is close to the limits of what is possible in the PC environment with Turbo Prolog. It is likely that further work in this area will have to move out of the PCs to the workstations or to other more powerful computing platforms. The most important enhancement that is needed in the current system is a natural language interface; the current Prolog-like interface is acceptable only in classroom/research settings. The system has had considerable success in its principal research objectives. However, on the question of integrating statistical decision theory with fuzzy logic and certainty factors, the expert system methodology appears to be at a dead end; perhaps real progress in this area will come from purely statistical approaches to the problem.

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Working Papers | 1990

Sustainable Development of Indian Agriculture: Green Revolution Revisited

Anil K. Gupta

Indian experience of technological change through 'Green Revolution' in now an internationally acclaimed achievement. Several countries in Africa are being advised to follow Indian experience. We have reappraised the lessons of Indian experience for the point for new sustainability. Decline productivity of agriculture inputs is causing concern in India. Emerging scenarios has been renewed to raise some question about the so called consensus of India Experience.

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Working Papers | 1990

Linkages for Lateral Learning Among Farmers, Scientists and Extension Workers: Story of Match Makers and Lessons for Link Breakers

Anil K. Gupta

The linkages between farmers, scientists and extension workers have been studied through several angles. The barriers to learning at individual and organizational level have been listed. The relation between the type of linkages and the portfolio of enterprises households have, is discussed through Mean-Variance Matrix. Finally, lessons for making and breaking links are reviewed. In appendix one channels of communication between farmers and scientists are analysed. In Appendix two a critique of study by ISNAR, The Hague, on the subject is presented. In Annex-3 a research review on inter-organizational linkages between research institutions engaged in research for rainfed regions is presented. Annex-4 includes discussion on institutional context for lateral learning. It is argued that to forge new links between disadvantaged farmers, scientists and extension workers, some of the old links will have to be broken. After all, one could not add indefinitely without subtracting. The technology transfer paradigm has emphasized the demand side individual oriented approach too much. There is a need for making a transition to portfolio approach to designing technology development and diffusion in high risk environments.

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Working Papers | 1990

Migration: A Case of Gujarat

Moulik T K and Mehta Swati

Despite massive investments in rural development programmes during the last ten years, the problem of unemployment has assumed alarming proportions causing migration of the rural population. Although there are several factors responsible, lack of employment opportunities in the rural sector and the 'urban pull' factor caused by relatively greater employment opportunities are equally important. Over the years, economic factors have eclipsed other factors like environment, socio-cultural, political etc. Besides, along with selective permanent migration, temporal, spatial and seasonal migration has also become common. This is due to the greater absorption capacity of the rural labour force in commercial agriculture, new industrial activities, dam construction and field channels of irrigation etc. Experience has also shown that migration was of higher magnitude and in greater grequency in the underdeveloped regions and in tribal regions. Although it is difficult to assess the qualitative and quantitative impact of rural migration in the under developed regions, two effects can be pointed out, 1) due to the migration there would be a decline in the qualitative aspect of human resources which are so vital in devising need based developmental plans for rural development, 2) once the migrants come under the influence of the urban environmental factors, the 'rural pull' factor may not be so attractive any longer.

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Working Papers | 1990

Blending Cultural Values, Indigenous Technology and Environment: The Experience of Bhutan *

Anil K. Gupta and Ura Karma

How did an extremely less developed, isolated mountain country succeed in keeping its 64 per cent of the area under forest? How did it succeed in avoiding any case of widespread deprivation and keep ecological balance in a fairly sustainable manner? What problems are it facing in its anxiety to keep its cultural core intact and at the same time improve the level of living of its people. This paper deals with the experience of Bhutan, a tiny land locked Himalayan country which has evolved common property and other collective institutions for resource management. Buddhist ethics plays an important role in blending culture with technology. The paper is divided into seven parts. Part I deals with the culture of conservation and Buddhist ethics. Part II includes a discussion on the framework of institutional emergence in mountain societies. Rules and principles have to be distinguished while dealing with boundaries of moral and ethical responsibilities towards environment. Examples of specific institutions for managing water, grazing land, forest and labour contribution for public and common goods are provided in Part III. The institutional innovations are related to technological innovations. Culture of this innovative ethic is reviewed in Part IV. Specific examples based on water stream driven prayer wheel, architecture and education, alignment of irrigation channel, movement of livestock, prevention of diffusion of animal diseases, generation of cropping system and management of shifting cultivation are covered in this part. Part V includes issues that are emerging in the process of technological transfer given the above context. What are the major risks and how are they perceived by the people is discussed in Part VI. The role played by collective institutions, moral responsibilities and non-monetised reciprocities is particularly highlighted. The policy implication for sustainable development of mountains are listed in Part VII. We believe that bureaucratic or market institutions have failed to conserve natural resources anywhere in the world. The Western conception of resource conservation through complete closure are neither scientifically or socio-ecologically sustainable. The principles of maintaining socio-ecological diversity and complexity through innovative institutions are available in the frame of individuals and groups have to be developed in the changing technological and politico-economic environment. Bhutan's experience can be helpful even for the developed countries.

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Working Papers | 1990

Career Paths of Women in Management in India

Parikh Indira J

This paper examines the entry of women in management and their career paths in the organization. Three phases can be distinctly identified. The first phase appears in the fifties. In this phase women, men and organization related to women in management with social structures and modes of relationship. It was a phase of societal transition where women's entry was related to job, economic autonomy or finding engagement in activities to do justice to the education received. The second phase emerged around mid sixties till early seventies. The women created opportunities for career paths. Career paths implies a task orientation and management of competition, collaboration being evaluated and formal work roles. It also meant management of home and work interface and work acquiring significance in the life space. The third phase is the decade of the eighties. The concept of professionalization meant clarity between social and formal work roles and the systems. It also meant emergence of new choices and actions. This paper then examines organizational context and issues of women in management. These issues revolve around task allocation, authority, evaluation and promotion, relationship with superiors, colleagues and subordinates and the concept of membership the women hold. It then reflects upon the current and future scenario of women in management in the cultural, organizational and role context.

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Working Papers | 1990

A Two-Stage Heuristic for Designing Data Communication Networks

Sridharan R

In this paper, we present a two-stage heuristic which identifies the most economical way to connect the nodes of a date communication network. We formulate this network design problem as a star-star concentrator location problem. To solve this problem, a Lagrangin relaxation procedure is proposed. The first stage of the procedure, namely the solution to the relaxed problem, identifies the optimal locations of the transit nodes. Then a greedy type heuristic, as well as an optimal procedure are used to identify the linkage of these transit nodes to the other nodes. Computational results are provided and the results are also compared with another method.

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Working Papers | 1990

Banking for Rural Transformation: Issues for "90s"

Anil K. Gupta

Banking for rural transformation in nineties will face many challenges that require hard choices. Challenges from demand side include (a) declining profitability and sustainability of agriculture, (b) continued stagnation in rural employment, marginalization of land holdings and thus need for self employment for large rural masses not likely to find productive avenues in far or industrial sector in the near future, (c) rising aspirations of rural disadvantaged people expecting speedy redressal of their historical deprivation, (d) increasing regional imbalances and worsening ecological imbalance in high risk environments triggering in some cases social conflicts and (e) diversification of skills and resource use options requiring flexible eco-specific institutional response. On supply side, the key complexities are : (a) increasing budget deficit and reduced ability of state to subsidise the growth and distribution oriented policies, (b) increasing cost of lending with declining profitability of banking system as a whole, (c) manpower constraints with banks to provide adequate follow up of loans and reduced ability to discriminate between genuine and willful defaulter, (d) weakening of relationship between rural borrowers and bank staff due to very large and wide coverage, and 'lightening of lines of control and weakening of housekeeping', (e) insufficient upgradation of skills of bank officials to deal with group or common property based investments or other means of reducing transaction costs, (f) mismatch between banking technology and work load, (g) lack of suitability of 'standardised organizational design for highly variable environmental needs' etc. We have tried to capture only some of the major trends in the banking and development policies so that pointers for future can be properly identified. The paper is divided into three parts. Part I deals with the major transitions that banking system has experienced. In Part II we list the challenges in agricultural technology system, emerging organizational constraints including the problem of viability, overdues, banking non farm sector and backward regions. Inventory of issues that we have to face in the nineties is given in Part III along with some possible alternatives to overcome the emerging constraints. It is hoped that a wider national debate on these issues will help liberate the banking system from myopic bureaucratic strangleholds and at the same time increase its social accountability. It is also hoped that the unions in the organized sector will rise to the occasion and recognize their historic responsibility towards the rural unorganized sector

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Working Papers | 1990

Correlated Equilibria Under Bounded and Unbounded Rationality

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we establish an isomorphism between the set of correlated equilibria of a game on the one hand and the set of ordered pairs of coordination mechanisms and equilibrium decision rules for the same game on the other, in the case of bounded and unbounded rationality. The paper develops a systematic theory establishing an injection from the set of ordered pairs of coordination mechanisms and equilibrium decision rules tot he set of correlated equilibria. The converses follow easily from the methods of the proofs. As an intermediate step, we introduce the concept of a conditionally correlated equilibrium under bounded rationality.

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Working Papers | 1990

Threat Bargaining Games with Incomplete Information and Nash Solution

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we extend the framework of threat bargaining games to include these with incomplete information. In this set up we address ourselves to two significant problems: 1) Under what conditions would 'truthful' revelation of the disagreement payoffs be a Nash equilibrium of the resulting threat bargaining game? 2) Obtaining a characterization of the Nash bargaining solution without the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Assumption.

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