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2757 items in total found

Working Papers | 2020

How informative are quantified survey data? Evidence from RBI household inflation expectations survey

Gaurav Kumar Singh

Quantification of the ordinal survey responses on inflation expectations ease and important preliminary step for undertaking further macroeconomic analysis of the data. In this paper, we briefly describe the standard quantification methods along with the underlying assumptions. We also propose two new methods for Quantification. We than apply these methods to quantify the IESH data collected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). An interesting fact that emerges from this exercise is simpler quantification methods are found to perform better that more complex methods for IESH data. Also, the methods with time varying weights or time varying thresholds, as the case may be, work significantly better.

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Working Papers | 2020

Expectations formation of household inflation expectations in India

Gaurav Kumar Singh

Inflation expectations data are commonly used to address a number of important questions primarily related to the inflation expectations formation. This work presents such an empirical analysis of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) inflation expectations data for Indian urban population. First, we apply a battery of tests for verifying the assumptions of rationality of household expectations. The tests lead to the outright rejection of the assumptions. On the other hand, the inflation forecasts by professional forecasters seem to support the rational expectations assumptions. Second, considering a regression model we find that the inflation forecasts by the professionals forecast the actual inflation better than what could be predicted by the recently available actual inflation data. Finally, using a sticky information model (Mankiw Reis (2001, 2002), Carroll (2003)) we also find the support for Carroll's contention that relevant macroeconomic information about future inflation flows from experts to the households, not vice versa. Additionally, if the sticky inflation model describes the household inflation expectations formation, it is natural to expect that more news about inflation in the news channels would lead to the reduction of disagreement. Our empirical analysis using Google trend data supports this hypothesis.

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Working Papers | 2020

Public perception of courts in India: unmeasured gap between the justice system and its beneficiaries

M.P. Ram Mohan, Muhammed K Faisal, Jacob P Alex, and M V Shiju

Understanding how people view the courts and the legal profession helps in identifying some areas of friction, and thereby provides critical insights into the measures needed to improve the working and management of the justice delivery process. This study examines the influence of gender, age, education and court experience on citizens' perception of the Ernakulam District and Sessions Court, Kerala-a state with the highest social indicators in India. Using a total sample of two hundred and fifty (n=250) respondents, the study assessed perception of the court using three attitudinal scales, perception of the court's concern and respect, fair procedure and outcome, and overall perception of the court. A multivariate regression analysis was used to gauge the significance of the influence of each demographic factor and court experience on the respondents' perception of the court. We find respondents with personal experience in courts perceive it negatively; gender has no significant influence on attitudes toward the court; and regardless of their demographic characteristics and court experience, people perceive the court as being too costly and too slow for settling legal disputes.

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Working Papers | 2020

THE PRE-KAUTILYAN PERIOD:
CRUCIBLE OF PROTO ECONOMIC IDEAS AND PRACTICES

Satish Y. Deodhar

A number of studies have been conducted in the recent past throwing light on Kautilya's contribution to economic policy. In his treatise Arthashastra, Kautilya informs that his contribution was based on received knowledge and gives credit to his predecessors. Unfortunately, the specialized works of the predecessors have been lost with the passage of time. I have attempted to scout and collate the economic notions that have appeared interspersed in the available Sanskrit treatises written prior to Arthashastra. Kautilya's Arthashastra must have evolved from the crucible of such literature. In this context I discuss the four-fold classifications of purusharthas, ashramas, and varnas referenced in ancient texts and their attendant economic implications in the society then. I also cover the economic notions at the macro and institutional level which include policies of a welfare state, practical ideas about public goods, market facilitation, property rights, labour relations and unions, coinage, taxation, and budget deficit.

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Working Papers | 2020

The Implications of Economic Uncertainty for Bank Loan Portfolios

Sanket Mohapatra and Siddharth M. Purohit

This paper analyses the impact of economic uncertainty on the composition of bank credit across household and firm loans. Using bank-level data spanning 40 developed and developing countries, we find that higher economic uncertainty is associated with an increase in the relative share of household credit in the loan portfolio of banks. This change in composition of credit may result from banks efforts to reduce the overall riskiness of their loan portfolios, since corporate loans are generally viewed as riskier than household loans. This shift is more pronounced for weakly-capitalized banks, which may face greater risks during economic shocks, and for larger banks, which may be riskier due to complex business models and more market-based activities. The variation in our main findings by banks capitalization and size suggests that they arise from changes in bank credit supply in response to greater uncertainty. The baseline results hold for a range of robustness tests. Our study highlights the role of aggregate uncertainty in micro-level outcomes and are relevant for bank capital regulation and the conduct of macroprudential policy.

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Working Papers | 2020

The Doctrine of Frustration under section 56 of the Indian Contract Act

M.P. Ram Mohan, Promode Murugavelu, Gaurav Ray, and Kritika Parakh

The performance of obligations under a contract may be hindered by unexpected supervening events, leading to contractual uncertainties. The doctrine of frustration paves the way for a just consequence of such an unfortunate event, which has happened without any fault of the contracting parties. The doctrine fills the void in a contract regarding supervening events, based on principles of fairness and equity. Considering the large implications on the obligatory and binding nature of a valid contract, it becomes important to analyse the factors that guide the courts to determine its application. Unlike common law, the Indian Contract law explicitly incorporates the doctrine of frustration under section 56 of the Contract Act. However, the evolution of this doctrine in India has been greatly influenced by English law. This paper attempts to restate the law on the doctrine of frustration as applicable in India.

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Working Papers | 2020

Auditors' negligence and professional misconduct in India: a struggle for a consistent legal standard

M.P. Ram Mohan and Vishakha Raj

Gross negligence is a severe form of negligence. Its severity has been characterized using the presence of a mental element or mens rea accompanying the negligent act. Within the context of professional negligence, gross negligence is important as it constitutes professional misconduct. For auditors, a finding of professional misconduct through disciplinary proceedings can result in suspension or expulsion from the profession. The Securities and Exchange Board of India also uses this concept to determine whether an auditor has violated any securities regulations. Given the implications of a finding of gross negligence on the practice of an auditor, this paper seeks to examine the legal standard in detail. The paper examines all reported High Court decisions from 1950s till 2019 and finds that the standards applied by the High Courts have been inconsistent. In the absence of any precedent from the Supreme Court of India that details what comprises gross negligence in the context of auditors, the inconsistent approach of the High Courts poses a problem. The Supreme Court decision in the P.K. Mukherjee case (1968) dealt with an auditor's misconduct, however, it did not examine the question of gross negligence. This paper offers a starting point for a discussion to minimize the uncertainty currently associated with auditors' liability for professional misconduct, especially hoping to assist the newly established the National Financial Reporting Authority in its decision-making process.

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Working Papers | 2020

Pre-packs in the Indian Insolvency Regime

M.P. Ram Mohan and Vishakha Raj

Pre-packaging allows a distressed company to negotiate a plan with its creditors and a purchaser before entering formal insolvency proceedings. By allowing the terms of a plan to be negotiated before formal proceedings, pre-packs provide a quick and discreet way of completing the insolvency resolution process. The speed and confidentiality offered by pre-packs have made them prevalent in the United Kingdom and the United States, however, these advantages come with trade-offs. Creditors' voting rights under the regular insolvency resolution process are circumvented by the pre-pack process. The US has two pre-pack processes, one that requires creditor approval and another which does not. In the UK and the US, there has been opposition to regulating pre-packs that do not need creditor approval because reforms that increase creditor participation will reduce the speed associated with such pre-packs. In India, pre-packs have not evolved through the present regime as it does not allow for the assets of a debtor to be sold without its creditors' approval. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India is considering introducing pre-packs in the Indian regime and faces unique challenges because of some of the features in India's insolvency regime. Insolvency law in India prohibits the participation of a company's directors and creditors in the pre-pack process. Indian insolvency law also has broad avoidance provisions which can complicate the implementation of pre-packs. This paper discusses these challenges and uses the experience of the UK and the US to suggest a framework for the introduction of pre-packaged insolvency in India. After evaluating the pre-pack regimes in the UK and the US, we conclude that it would be optimal for India to retain creditor protections and require creditor approvals in its pre-pack regime. This would ensure that pre-packs can be discreetly implemented and also avoids the disenfranchisement of creditors.

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Working Papers | 2020

Shukranitisara: A Political Economy Text at the Cusp of Indian Kingdoms and Colonial Rule
(Revised as on 15/03/3021)

Satish Y. Deodhar

Shukracharya's treatise on political economy has been referred to in many ancient Indian texts such as Arthashastra, Buddhacharitam and Mahabharata. However, that treatise has been lost. A text titled Shukranitisara was brought to light in the nineteenth century. Written no later than the early part of the
nineteenth century, the text has been written at the cusp of decline of the Indian kingdoms and entry of the colonial powers. The text is unique in that it seems to synthesize ancient Sanskrit writings as well as early regulations of East India Company. While a Sanskrit to English translation of the document exits and a few
have also written about this text from the perspective of political science, nothing has been written from the perspective of economic policies. This is an effort to capture the economic aspects of the treatise. Among the four purusharthas or the life objectives, while Arthashastra had given primacy to artha or material wealth, Shukranitisara considers dharmic or ethical conduct as foremost for the economic decisions of the state and the householder. Among other things, the treatise addresses issues of governance, breadth of vocations and sciences, public finance, prices, markets, contracts, labour relations, and advice to a householder. If some of
the policies mentioned in Shukranitisara are detailed and unique as compared to Arthashastra, some other are similar to the early regulations of the East India Company. Some of the policy advices from the text remain relevant even for today.

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Working Papers | 2020

Foreign Currency Borrowing and Firm Financing Constraints in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

Sanket Mohapatra and Jay Prakash Nagar

This study examines the relationship between foreign currency borrowing and financing
constraints for Indian firms. Using panel data for 2,512 non-financial listed firms in India
during 1996-2016, this study finds that the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flows, an
indicator of financing constraints, is higher for firms with foreign currency debt exposure
compared to other firms. Financing constraints are higher prior to new foreign currency
borrowing compared to a matched sample of firms with only domestic borrowing, but
decrease after foreign borrowing, suggesting that foreign debt reduces firms' financing
constraints. Moreover, firms that have relationships with either private or foreign banks have
higher financing constraints when undertaking new foreign borrowing compared to those
enjoying exclusive relationships with only government-owned banks. The financing
constraints for foreign currency borrowers are also found to be higher during domestic credit
booms compared to other periods. Non-manufacturing firms and those with lower than
median export revenues and higher than median tangible assets experience greater financing
constraints compared to other firms when they borrow in foreign currencies. These findings
provide new evidence on the role of foreign currency borrowing in mitigating financing
constraints in emerging market economies.

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