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Working Papers | 2003

Short-Term and Medium-Term Prospects of Agricultural Sector in Gujarat – Some Policy Recommendations

Ravindra H. Dholakia, Samar K. Datta, and Vijay Paul Sharma

By mid-September, 2003 it is becoming clear that Gujarat is likely to experience a bumper crop in the year 2003-04. The State Ministry of Agriculture is looking for some concrete suggestions, advice and policy recommendations to better manage the situation likely to be created by the bumper crop this year. Falling prices in the face of bumper crop can considerably wipe out positive effect on agricultural incomes in the hands of farmers in the State. Short-term measures to avoid such a situation need to be integrated into medium term and long term development strategy for the State agricultural sector. The present paper provides some implementable policy recommendations in this context.

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Working Papers | 2003

Development and Poverty Reduction: Do Institutions Matter? A Study on the Impact of Local Institutions in Rural India

Vasant P. Gandhi and Marsh Robin

The paper examines the impact of local institutions on development and poverty in the rural areas of India. Recent research on the role of institutions on the path of economic development indicates the importance of both "macro" and "micro" institutions including local institutions. The study finds a large number of both formal and informal local institutions in the surveyed villages, and a substantial degree of interaction of the households with the institutions. These include both formal institutions such as service cooperatives and dairy cooperatives, as well as informal institutions such as savings groups, community associations and labour groups. The study finds that apart from the standard factors included such as land, capital and labour, the presence and membership in local institutions plays a significant role in explaining the variation in household incomes and gain in capital assets over time. Savings/ micro-credit groups, and dairy cooperatives are found to be particularly important. Further, membership in these institutions is not found to be related to high asset levels or high caste-it is often inversely so. This indicates a stronger developmental role. Recorded opinions of the households supports the findings on the impact and beneficial role of local institutions. The study confirms that institutions do matter, and that local institutions can and do make a significant contribution in helping development in the rural areas, especially so for the lower income groups.

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Working Papers | 2003

Overnight Stock Returns and Time-varying Correlations

Ajay Pandey

Time-varying correlation of the stock market returns across countries in the context of international investments has been well researched in the literature in last few years. It has also been recognized that there is "volatility effect in correlation", as the stock return correlations tend to rise on high-volatility days. Recent research has however, highlighted the pitfalls of using sample correlation for comparison, particularly when the conditional volatility across samples is not same. It has been shown that the sample correlation of two independent random variables is expected to rise when the conditional volatility of the variables is high and vice-versa, even if the unconditional correlation between them is constant. Empirically, it has been long well known that the overnight (closed-market) stock returns are less volatile than the open-market returns. Making use of this regularity, we test whether the stock returns correlation are higher during trading or non-trading hours. Using five years' daily returns of 30 constituent stocks of Sensitive Index (Sensex) of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai, we find that almost all the pair-wise closed market stock return correlations are higher than the open market correlations despite lower volatility of the closed market returns. These results are further reinforced after using the univariate and bivariate conditional volatility models. Higher closed market stock return correlations are consistent with the possibility that information, which arrives during non-trading, is more on common factors. Arrival of information on common factors would imply higher stock return correlations during non-trading hours. This has implication for managing risks associated with any stock portfolio, as the diversification benefits might be over-estimated for overnight positions and under-estimated during trading hours if daily close-to-close returns are used to estimate variance-covariance matrix.

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Working Papers | 2003

Management of RH Services in India and the Need for Health System Reform

K. V. Ramani, Shaw Jane, and Dileep Mavalankar

For the last ten to fifteen years, a comprehensive agenda of health sector reforms and health systems development has engulfed the health system in many countries in structural and organisational changes. Experience with varying degrees and types of reforms have now been reported from many countries. In our paper, we begin by describing some important issues facing the management of RH programs in India, based on our research done in a few states over the last five years. The failures in the management of RH services are complex and multi-factorial, and cannot all be addressed through health system reform. It is therefore necessary to identify which failures in service are attributable to causes, which could be removed or changed by reform in the health system. In our paper, we identify those failures and causes which could be corrected through health system reforms and propose certain concrete steps to expedite the reforms in the health system to enable the improvement of RH services in India.

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Working Papers | 2003

Elements of a World Class Management School

Pankaj Chandra

This paper delineates the best practices that are commonly followed by world class management schools in their governance and pursuit of scholarly activities. It tries to highlight the processes required to become a world class institution and draws implications for schools in India that aspire to become world class. The paper is based on visits to a number of such schools around the world and discussion with faculty and administrators at these schools. It also discusses issues like autonomy, research, governance, compensation and financial independence which are critical for academic development of institutions in India.

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Working Papers | 2003

Improving In-plant Logistics by Process Reengineering: Case Study

N. Ravichandran

This paper documents the experience of redesigning in-plant logistics operations of a large petrochemical complex in India. The complex under reference is expected to have a traffic volume of one truck per one minute by 2005. The existing systems and procedures to receive and inspect a truck, load material, and complete commercial formalities are designed with a target truck turnaround time of 82 minutes. However, in reality the actual truck turnaround time is significantly higher than the target turnaround time. The plant is located in a growing industrial area. Inordinate delay in truck turnaround time is a major demotivating factor for the truck companies to place their trucks with this complex. Consequently, there is a significant variation between the planned and actual dispatch of finished goods. This investigation systematically analyzes the reasons for significant departure in the truck turnaround time. A truck driver survey is used to identify and prioritize areas of delay. As a consequence of this analysis, it is argued that deployment of additional resources, optimizing the activity processing time, sub-contracting some of the activities and extensive automation of the process would only marginally improve the performance of the turnaround time. In order to improve the turnaround time substantially, there is a need to redefine work, and fundamentally change the underlying process. Accordingly, several initiatives are identified to ensure dramatic reduction in the truck turnaround time.

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Working Papers | 2003

Reconcilation of the Dichotomies in Marketing Theory and Practice

Abraham Koshy and Dang Jha Priya

Although marketing researchers have aimed to discover theories in marketing, the level of theory development within the discipline is low. The paper reviews the knowledge development practices in marketing to identify a set of dichotomies that constrain theory development in the field. These dichotomies include (i) Dichotomy between positivist and relativist research paradigm, (ii) Dischotomy between theory testing and creation and (iii) Dichotomy between academics and practice. The paper then proposes means of reconciling these dichotomies so as to accelerate the level of theory development within the discipline.

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Working Papers | 2003

Modeling and Forecasting Volatility in Indian Capital Markets

Ajay Pandey

Various volatility estimators and models have been proposed in the literature to measure volatility of asset returns. In this paper, we compare empirical performance of various unconditional volatility estimators and conditional volatility models (GARCH and EGARCH) using time-series data of S&PCNX Nifty, a value-weighted index of 50 stocks traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Mumbai. The estimates computed by various estimators and conditional volatility models over non-overlapping one-day, five-day and one-month periods are compared with the "realized volatility" measured over the same period. We use three years' (1999-2001) high-frequency data set of five-minute returns to construct measures of realized volatility. In order to test the ability of the estimators and models to forecast volatility, we compare the estimates of unconditional estimators with the realized volatility measured in the next period of same length. For conditional volatility models, the forecasts for the same periods are obtained by estimating models from the time-series prior to the forecast period. Our results indicate that while conditional volatility models provide less biased estimates, extreme-value estimators are more efficient estimators of realized volatility. As far as forecasting ability of models and estimators is concerned, conditional volatility models fare extremely poorly in forecasting five-day (weekly) or monthly realized volatility. In contrast, extreme-value estimators, other than the Parkinson estimator, perform relatively well in forecasting volatility over these horizons.

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Working Papers | 2003

Solving Medium to Large Sized Euclidean Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree Problems

Diptesh Ghosh

The generalized minimum spanning tree problem is a generalization of the minimum spanning tree problem. This network design problems finds several practical applications, especially when one considers the design of a large-capacity backbone network connecting several individual networks. In this paper we study the performance of six neighborhood search heuristics based on tabu search and variable neighborhood search on this problem domain. Our principal finding is that a tabu search heuristic almost always provides the best quality solution for small to medium sized instances within short execution times while variable neighborhood decomposition search provides the best quality solutions for most large instances.

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Working Papers | 2003

Identification of Top Performing Economies

Kumar Akhilesh S and Ravindra H. Dholakia

Using seven indicators of the economic performance of 187 countries, the paper identifies the top 50 performers during the decades of 1981-90 and 1991-2000. Five of these indicators are the trend rates of growth over a decade in imports, FDI, capital formation, per capita income and forex reserves. Average inflation rate and HDI are the remaining indicators. Comparison of top performers of the 1980s and the 1990s suggest that high performance in inflation and HDI are the precondition for consistency of high overall performance over time. The paper also examines the interrelationship among the indicators over time.

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