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Working Papers | 1997

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Indian Agriculture

Desai B M and Namboodiri N V

Past literature shows that technical change in agriculture is determined by non-price like government expenditure on R&D and infrastructure. But more recent literature also considers relative farm prices that would provide incentives for technical change. This has been reinforced by the present policy in the wake of reforms that reduce protection to trade and industry for advocating its prime role for technical change. This paper therefore develops a more comprehensive framework of price and non-price factors for studying this change. Among the non-price factors it separately considers government investment in R&D, inputs, credit, rural literacy, and marketing and banking infrastructure density in addition to land reforms. Contrary to the official view technical change is influenced more by non-price factors than relative farm prices. Moreover, these prices have deleterious impact on technical change as when they increase farmers consumption also increase with a consequent decline in their investment in acquiring new knowledge which seem to outbid their positive incentive effect. Among the non-price factors government expenditure on agricultural R&D is the single most important factor accounting for as much as 87 per cent of the variation in total factor productivity. And it has a marginal internal rate of return of over 20 per cent.

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Working Papers | 1997

Share Equivalent Allocations for Problems of Fair Division

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we begin with a given social endowment. A profile of shares (which could very well all be equal), is part of the environment. This is the planner's contribution to the economic environment, as conceived in this paper. First we formulate the concept of an envy free allocation as was done by Schmeidler (1978). An allocation is share equivalent if every agent is indifferent between his allocation and what would result if an identical change in entitlements were affected for all the agents. (An agent's entitlement is his share of the social endowment in physical units.) If the identical change is a multiple of the social endowment vector, we say that the allocation is naturally share equivalent. We prove the existence of a naturally share equivalent allocation which is also Pareto efficient and prove that such allocations correspond to maximization of the minimum utility over all feasible allocations. For two agent economies we show that naturally share equivalent allocations are envy free and all envy free allocations are share equivalent. Thus, we manage to generalize an existing notion of economic equity, by incorporating possible asymmetries that may need to arise for the sake of obtaining (final) distributive justice. As observed by Moulin (1995), problems of fair division arise perpetually in managerial contexts. With these results, perhaps a new insight would be gained in resolving such problems.

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Working Papers | 1997

Viability of Rural Banking by The Nationalized Commercial Banks in India

Bhattacharjee Sourindra, Desai B M, and Naik Gopal

This paper examines the viability of rural banking by the Nationalized Commercial Banks and the factors influencing it. The viability was examined using both cost and profitability analyses. Theory of costs is used for the former, while multi-variate econometric model is formulated for the latter. Factors influencing viability in both the analysis are classified into innovative and non-innovative based on unique characteristics of rural banking in India. The results show that rural banking is viable and it could be further improved by reaping scale economies rather than raising interest rate. But this would require more decentralized, autonomous and accountable form of rural banking.

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Working Papers | 1997

Opportunity Creation and Threat Perception Focal Faculties in the Aviation Context

Thomas P S and T. Madhavan

The new civil aviation policy may be controversial because it marks a historic shift from potential intra industry sources of foreign investment to trans industry sources (as distinct from purely financial consortia). This sets the stage for observing the unfolding of focal faculty theory in actual management practice especially at the regional level. Under this theory, there are no insuperable barriers to entry in the long run but only barriers to profitable imitation in the short run. In this paper we review some recent approvals granted to airline proposals to observe if there is any discernible movement in the predicted direction. Examples were found both at the national and regional levels. The brief review did not uncover evidence of radically innovative entry strategies by foreign players. Perhaps it sjust a case of "early days". The examples identified involve actual aviation industry players engaged in well-known strategies of vertical integration or apparent positioning for horizontal integration at an appropriate time. While airlines seem to be maneuvering at the upper (national) level, aircraft manufacturers/distributors seem to be active at the lower (regional) level. Even so, prospects for a transformation of Indian aviation over 10-15 years are fairly certain. Two test cases for focal faculty theory were also identified. Oddly enough these were existing (or interested) firms which are required to divest the foreign airline stake in force (or contemplated). Who are the aviation savvy, yet "non-aviation" investors who will take up these stakes for the long term-financial investors or focal faculty investors? And, internationally, does this qualify as "liberalisation" (pseudo or quasi)? Is conventional liberalisation required to achieve take-off in the aviation sector? The paper concludes with a brief discussion of an approach to monitoring the "aeropolitical" skyline for opportunity creation and threat perception. An appendix outlines the global aviation scene in terms of past experience with regulation, deregulation and liberalization.

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Working Papers | 1997

Simulation Model of CO Patel Vegetable and Fruit Market of Ahmedabad

Girja Sharan, T. Madhavan, Siripura S C B, Kumar M Krishna, and Gabani S H

In this paper a simulation model of CJ Patel Vegetable and Fruit Market of Ahmedabad has been presented. Market is viewed as a dynamic, stochastic queuing system. Model was developed to provide a means to analyse vehicle-borne congestion.

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Working Papers | 1997

Badla System: A Reappraisal

Gupta Ramesh

The badla system, which allowed transactions to be carried forward from one trading valan to the next, was banned by the SEBI in March 1994. SEBI was hoping that for the purpose of speculative trading, an internationally accepted system of options and index future trading would replace the indigenously evolved badla system. To call badla trading a kind of forward trading is misleading. Badla is carryover of a transaction and not a forward transaction. While derivative trading (i.e. futures and options trading) is a trading in future risk among different participants in the stock market, mostly used as a hedging device. To have a strong cash market with sufficient liquidity, some element of leveraged (i.e. speculative) trading is necessary. Now this is possible only if the system provides: a) facility to buy shares on margin, and b) facility to sell short. Badla system fell into disrepute because of its faulty implementation and lack of proper monitoring by concerned stock exchange authorities. Particularly, the margins collected were low, allowing excess leveraged trading and not having proper monitoring and surveillance. With proper framing of rules and regulations, chances of its misuse would be reduced considerably; without incurring large efficiency losses associated with financial regulations. These costs associated with financial regulations include both the direct element (the 'compliance cost') and the indirect element (i.e. the damage inflicted on the competitiveness, dynamism and innovativeness of the system, the possible reduction in investor choice, the distortions included in market behaviour and business practice etc). Further, regulatory framework should also ensure competitive neutrality among different participants on the stock exchanges. SEBI reconsidered its decision and badla was reintroduced in July 1995 with severe conditions. In this paper, these conditions are critically evaluated. A few modifications are suggested. 1. not to insist on segregation of transactions at the time of trading. 2. not to insist on separate identification of each transaction with an audit trail and limit of 90 days for completion of transaction. 3. not to impound profits and streamline the daily and carryover margin requirements. 4. Financiers not to trade on securities but allowed to hold securities with them. Suggested changes would make the system cost effective, less complex, easy to implement, and will ensure level playing field among different market participants.

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Working Papers | 1997

Factors Influencing the Perceived Priority of Tuberculosis in India

Deepti Bhatnagar

The objective of this study was to understand the priority attached to tuberculosis in India by the major stakeholders in the National Tuberculosis Programme, to explore the underlying factors, and to suggest illustrative steps to enhance the effectiveness of the programme delivery. Major stakeholders were broadly grouped into three categories: the programme providers (the entire government system involved in the design and delivery of the programme, starting with the health ministry at the central government to the health workers at the field level), the programme recipients (patients as well as community at large), and the tuberculosis watchdogs (including the not-for-profit organisations such as the Tuberculosis Association of India and Foundation for Research in Community Health, as well as the media). The perceived priorities of stakeholders were explored through a combination of approaches. Methodology included discussions with programme functionaries form the apex level to the grassroots level, structured and semi-structured interviews covering all the stakeholders, questionnaire surveys of priorities of government doctors and health workers, and the experiences of tuberculosis patients, perusal of relevant documents, research reports, and newspaper reports, etc. Our analysis showed an overall low priority for tuberculosis. It manifested itself in a variety of ways: from low plan allocations for tuberculosis among the communicable diseases, and frequent change of the senior-most functionary in the tuberculosis division at the central level, to a relatively-low importance attached by the government doctors, and competing priorities and pressures for the health workers at the field level. Patients' experiences reflected the fallout in terms of indifferent programme delivery. Perusal of the electronic and print media indicated that there was tremendous scope to use this powerful tool for awareness-building about tuberculosis among the larger community in general and for giving specific inputs and message of hope to people suffering from tuberculosis in particular. Our report concludes with suggestions and illustrative steps for enhancing the effectiveness of the Revised National Tuberculosis Programme in India.

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Working Papers | 1997

Macroeconomic Analysis of the Union Budget 1997-98

Dholakia Bakul H

The Union Budget for 1997-98 has been widely acclaimed as a historic budget. In view of the serious differences among different members of the coalition government on major economic issues ranging from the size of fiscal deficit to the level of administered prices & subsidies, the situation facing the Finance Minister called for both guts and confidence to formulate a reform & growth oriented budget. In a rare display of the initiative and the required guts, the Finance Minister acted decisively in favour of the top half of the country's population and in the process earned an overwhelmingly favourable public response to his budget proposals. An attempt has been made in this paper to present a broad macroeconomic analysis of the main proposals of the Union Budget 1997-98 and examine the likely impact of the budget proposals on Indian economy. An attempt has also been made to present the post-budget macroeconomic scenario for Indian economy for the year 1997-98.

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Working Papers | 1997

The Coming Restructuring Wave

Venkiteswaran N

Indian corporate sector is on the threshold of a major restructuring wave, with a new round of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and demergers in the offing. This phase is likely to be qualitatively and quantitatively different from the earlier round in the first four years of economic reforms. This paper discusses some of the principal driving forces behind the new wave such as the continued low market valuation of a large number of companies, correction of managerial mistakes and cost pressures in several fragmented industries. This also examines the implications of recent regulatory changes for corporate restructuring in India.

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Working Papers | 1997

Investment Behaviour in Indian Agriculture: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

Vasant P. Gandhi and Mani Gyanendra

Investment behaviour is an important economic relation that has been difficult to determine in the context of developing economies. Yet, it is clearly recognized that investment is critical for sustained growth in the agriculture sector. There has been significant concern in India in the last 5 to 10 years about a reduction in the growth of agricultural investment. In this context, the present study seeks to examine the nature of investment behaviour from the 1950's to the early1990's using the theory of investment behaviour. It develop sa theoretical model which is then empirically estimated. The findings indicate substantial changes in investment in the post-1980 period. Government investment which was almost continuously rising before 1980/81 shows a decline which continues beyond 1986/87 on to 1992/93. Private investment, on the other hand, fluctuates substantially with some decline between 1980-81 to 1986/87, but after 1986/87 it starts rising and continues to rise till 1992/93. Model results indicate a considerable change in the investment behaviour between the 1952-1980 period and 1980-1992 periods. For instance, the relatively strong role of output prices in raising private investment in the earlier period is not validated in the later period. The strong positive impact of government investment on private validated in the later period. The strong positive impact of government investment on private investment in the earlier period turns empirically adverse in the later period, possibly, in part, due to declining public investment and rising private investment. The results are subject to data constraints and modelling limitations, and issues raised certainly require further investigation.

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