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Working Papers | 1993

Structural Features of Indias Financial System: 1980-92

Rastogi A B and Ghose Amitabha

The objective of this paper is to provide a concise description of the Indian Financial System from macro-economic perspective. The study analyses the evolution and interrelations of the financial system using the flow of funds framework and other tools of financial planning. The Financial intermediation by the banking sector waned a little as other financial companies gained importance in the economy. However, new assets, deposits and credits outstripped the growth rate of the economy.

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Working Papers | 1993

Modelling of Industrial Sector in Macroeconometric Models of Indian Economy

Rastogi A B

Modelling of the Industrial Sectors has been ad-hoc in macro models. The proportion of industrial sector out in nation output has steadily increased but modellers have ignored the link between industrial sector output and employment. There are various reasons for that. The scenario of industrial sector is changing rapidly and far-reaching changes are taking place in the economy. It has become imperative for the modellers to model industrial sector with its links with employment generation in the economy and policy variables which affect the industrial sector production. As service sector is gaining importance in the economy, it would be ideal to explore links between service sector and industrial sector output and services sector's potential to generate employment in the economy.

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Working Papers | 1993

Income and Price Elasticities in India Trade

Gupta G S and Keshava H

The paper estimates the export and import function for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels, using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91. It finds that the income elasticities of trade are significant and that this elasticity is significantly higher for imports than exports, implying the possibility of the worsening trade balance with the growth in economies. The trade is generally price inelastic but this elasticity is generally higher for exports than imports. The sum (absolute) of the two price elasticities generally exceeds unity and thus satisfies the Marshall-Lerner condition for the effectiveness of devaluation in regulating the trade imbalance. The impact of the 1966 devaluation is found significant more with regard to imports than exports, and the post 1980 liberalization policy has produced desirable impact on India globalization. Based on the estimated trade elasticities and the last five years average growth rates in the trade determinants, the growth rates in India's real exports and imports have been projected at 4.1% and 5.4% respectively, and accordingly a worsening of the trade imbalance has been foreseen in the coming years.

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Working Papers | 1993

The Guest for A Universal Morality: Habermas and Sri Aurobindo

Giri Ananta

Morals in the sociological and anthropological discourse have been looked at as a construction of culture and as an appendage of social norms. In the conventional sense, moral development culture. But such a notion of morality and moral development ignores the question of the Being and the universal issues of justice, well-being and freedom. In this context, psychologist Lawrence Kohlberg speaks of the post-conventional stage of moral development when the individual differentiates “his on her self from the rules and expectations of others and defines his or her values in terms of self-chosen ethical principles.” Such a post-themselves from the “historical coloration of particular form of life" and transcend the “unjust” givens of their native cultures. Such a moral awareness also prepares the ground for a genuine universality. The present paper looks into the issue of universal morality in the context of contemporary structural and discursive transformation, which is marked by globalisation. The paper discusses the work of German philosopher Jurgen Habermas and Indian spiritual prophet Sri Aurobindo and critically looks at different paths for the quest for universal morality in out contemporary world, which is marked by a hegemonic ascendancy of power and money as currencies of life, and a pervasive demoralisation of discourse.

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Working Papers | 1993

Universities and the Horizons of the Future

Giri Ananta

Ours is a time of fundamental changes. Changes in our economy and politics, revolutionary manifestation of new technologies and the whole host of contemporary forces are shattering our taken-for-granted assumptions about self and society. In this contemporary context of epochal change and challenge reflection is also taking place on the nature of universities. Serious commentators in this field such as former Harvard president Derek Bok tells us that universities have to pay more attention to the way they can inculcate moral values in those who belong to it and the way they can be a source of creative transformation in and pleads for more commitment to creativity from all those who care about knowledge and society in our contemporary times.

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Working Papers | 1993

On a Theorem due to Sobel

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we prove that any bargaining solution to group decision problems which satisfies individual rationality, strong symmetry, efficiency and strong improvement sensitivity also satisfies mid-point domination.

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Working Papers | 1993

Structural Determinants of Openness of Economies: The Conceptual Basis and Cross-Sectional Evidence

Sebastian Morris

This study argues that structural factors – principally population per capita income and population density – can explain a significant proportion of the variation in openness defined as (exports + imports)/gross national production. It also provides a conceptual and theoretical basis for the form of the function that explains openness. Spatial theories of order in the location of economic activities – the ideas of Christaller and Losch – which have found much support in studies of geographers, and other empirical findings of spatial order viz., the famous rank size rule of cities' populations, and the equally famous 'gravity-model' of spatial interaction, can all be used fruitfully to understand openness. They explain why openness is inversely related to population sizes, and more generally the functional form of the structural dependence. Biometricians in the early part of this century had used allometric growth models to understand the form and growth of organisms, across not too distant species. Use of the allometric model to the problem of trade openness only calls for recognising the economy as having a structure and therefore as being more than a collection of producers and consumers; and simple assumptions about the economy's principal characteristics. Given this structural determination of openness we are able to explain the long standing puzzle of Tarshis that smaller countries, but not smaller regions within a nation, would tend to show greater economic stability. Out study would also call for re-examination of many of the studies linking growth to trade openness, especially those conducted in a cross-sectional framework: We would contend that the measure of the openness that is induced by policy (and other non-structural factors) would have to be proxied not by revealed openness as such, but by the same adjusted for the structural component.

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Working Papers | 1993

Forecasting Money Supply Using Box-Jenkins and other Procedures

Gupta G S

The big provides forecasts on the money supply in India during 1993-01 through 1995-04, using the quarterly data for the period 1970-01 to 1992-04 and several alternative appropriate statistical and econometric methods. Appropriate statistical and econometric methods. Appropriate statistical tests and accuracy measures have been applied to assess the credibility of the alternative methods and within the sample period forecasts. It is found that the forecasts through the Box-Jenkin's method are the most conservative while those from the decomposition method the most liberal ones, those through the regression and exponential smoothing fall in between the two extremes. Arguments have been advanced for their comparative strengths and weaknesses. As per the results, the money supply is expected to be around Rs.5,000 billion in Dec. 1995, and it could vary between Rs.4,764 billion and Rs.5,814 in that period.

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Working Papers | 1993

Project Management: Comparison of Practices in India and U K

Tripathy Arabinda

Resources are committed primarily for two purpose. In one case it is spent on meeting ongoing requirements and in other case for creating new facilities. The first category is classified as operational requirements and the second project. However, the definition of project as an one time endeavour, encompasses many areas other than creation of new facilities. It is possible to associate all types of projects to creation of facilities physical or otherwise and resulting in “benefits” to a set of beneficiaries.

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Working Papers | 1993

On Internalization of Externalities

Anil K. Gupta and Prakash Aseem

Externalities can be internalized through market mechanism, government regulation, or self-governing institutions or a mix of these institutions. We recommend the institutional route which minimizes total cost (sum of technology, management, and transaction costs) to the firm. These costs are influenced by the externality attributes (occurrence, polluter, spatial, time and technology). Different institutions may be appropriate for different stages and social contexts of an externality.

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