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3721 items in total found

Working Papers | 1991

An Evaluation of Farmers Price Expectation Process

Naik Gopal and Babu K R

Most dynamic models involve expectation of one or more variables. Existence of several expectation hypotheses, none of them being preeminent for all situations, makes it difficult to choose an expectation process while building models. In this context it would be helpful if empirical validity of different hypotheses is available for broad categories or situations. This study is aimed at evaluating farmers expectation process in terms of different hypotheses available. Here, the land allocation to chilly crop is assumed to be primarily based on expectation of subsequent prices. The resultant model from different expectation hypotheses are fitted on the acreage under chilly crop. Also, four different types of price indices for the period 1948-50 to 1988-89 are used to estimate and test the models. The best fit model is selected based on R2, Amemiya Prediction Criteria (APC) and forecast accuracy measured by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The actual best fit model (ideal model) for price is also identified using the above criteria and compared with the best expectation model used by farmers to assess the accuracy of the expectation form used. The results indicates that the extrapolative model proposed by Turnovsky is the best model for explaining farmers' expectations. This model also seems to be the ideal model for forecasting prices, especially for the recent years.

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Working Papers | 1991

Two Characterizations of the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Assumption

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we propose alternative characterizations of the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) assumption, as conceived in bargaining theory. We provide two distinct characterizations, which, allows us to view both the deficiencies as well as the advantages of the IIA axiom from a new angle.

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Working Papers | 1991

Developing Small Holders Agriculture Through Changing Crop Composition

Naik Gopal and Babu K R

Small size of holdings of a large proportion of farmers is considered a major bottleneck in increasing the income of the people in rural areas. In India the proportion of small holders is increasing over time. Previous studies have suggested policies oriented towards non-prince factors such as increasing yield and changing crop composition for improving their incomes. This study examines how sericulture could be an ideal enterprise for small and marginal farmers in India. Analysis of primary data collected from 3 taluks of Karnataka state suggested that sericulture is far more attractive compared to competing crops in the respective areas in terms of net returns, cash flows and employment generation. Increasing silk production can also help in increasing foreign exchange earnings. Moreover, sericulture has other desirable features such as increased employment opportunities for women. Therefore, efforts towards popularising sericulture among small and marginal farmers could help in improving the living standards of these farmers.

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Working Papers | 1991

A Partial Characterization of the Uncapacitated Lot-Sizing Problem with Start-up Costs

Kalro A H

We consider the facial structure of the Uncapacitated Lot-sizing problem with start-up costs. We show that under mild assumptions on the objective function cost structure, adding valid inequalities described by Wolsey (1989) to the linear programming relaxation of the problem guarantees optimal integer solutions. For the special cases of a time horizon of 3 or less, we show that the inequalities completely describe the convex hull of feasible integer solutions. We also identify a new class of valid inequalities for the problem.

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Working Papers | 1991

Seed Industry in India Achievements and Prospects for growth

Gurdev Singh and Asokan S R

The paper enlists important policy measures taken to develop seed industry in India since 1947, progress made, and prospects for its growth. It reveals that the protectionist policy on seeds was abandoned in late eighties when seed industry was placed in Appendix I of the licensing policy. Subsequently under the New Seeds policy import of some seeds was placed under Open General Licensing while that of some others was permitted for two years subject to transfer of technology by the foreign company. Though impact of all such measures could not be seen immediately, the quality seed production has increased to 5.7 million quintals in 1989-90. The number of seed organizations in public and private sector has gone up to over 100. Seed multiplication alone has achieved a turn over of over Rs.3,000 million, about 50 pr cent of which was due to private sector. Few private companies have taken up seed research and are able to evolve more than 100 varieties/hybrids. However, still there is a big gap between production and requirement of quality seed. The requirement is estimated at 11.74 million quintals for 1989-90 and 22.19 million quintals for 2000 AD. The seed replacement has been far below the recommended rate for almost all major crops primarily due to non-availability of quality seeds of suitable varieties. Besides, there is good export demand for Indian seeds. Also to feed the teaming millions farm production must increase on continuous basis and productivity being the prime contributor to increasing production, seed quality must improve. Thus investment in research has good prospects and private sector must avail this opportunity to supplement public sector efforts. Biotechnology is a new hope as it ensures quicker multiplication and new strains. All this reflects on the bright prospects of growth for seed industry in India, the paper concludes.

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Working Papers | 1991

Indian Oilmeals/Cakes Scenario, 1961-90

Rao V M

NCA (1976) has estimated that 5.75 million tonnes of concentrates are needed to bridge the gap between availability and requirement. On the other hand demand for milk is increasing year after year due to population growth, and raise in per capital income. Hence demand for livestock feeds, for economic milk production, will increase. This paper is an attempt to review consumption, production and trade related aspects of oil meals India. Cotton, groundnut, and rapeseed are major oil cakes in terms of consumption, and production, though there are side fluctuations in their relative shares. Estimated elasticity of price, and adult bouines one of the expected signs and stastically different from zero at 99% level. India is a major exporter of oil meals in the world and on an average 20% of production is being exported to developed economies of the world.

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Working Papers | 1991

Some Thoughts on our Trade Unions

Sheth N R

This paper was prepared as a script for the S.D. Punekar Memorial Lecture delivered at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Bombay. It contains an attempt to review the state of art in trade unionism in India in the background of the mounting concern within and outside trade unions about the relevance of trade unionism in its present form. This concern is a product of some significant changes in the approach to management of industrial relations and the growing economic complexity in business and industry. It is argued that the primary function of trade unions is to provide a countervailing power for employees in relation to management and the society at large within the framework of the basic values of social equality, justice, fairness and human dignity. The development of trade unionism among blue-collar, white-collar and other categories of workers is briefly examined in the context of this primary function. The various social and political forces within and outside trade unions affecting their performance are explained in the course of the paper. Finally, some observations are offered on the role of trade unions as a part of the changing society in the foreseeable future and the crucial issues trade unions are likely to face.

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Working Papers | 1991

Crisil Rating: When Does AAA Mean B?

Ragunathan V and Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper an attempt has been made to assess the quality of credit rating function being performed by CRISIL, hitherto the sole credit rating agency in India. With this objective, the paper attempts to answer two important questions, namely: a) Are CRISIL's standards of rating comparable to international standards? And b) Are CRISIL's rating internally consistent? The questions are answered by assessing the companies rated AAA by CRISIL on the Standard and Poor's (S&P) standards. It turns out that the CRISIL's AAA companies rate variously from B to A on the S&P standards! This indicates that CRISIL's credit rating standards are not only much below international standards, they are also internally inconsistent. CRISIL's rating reports on its AAA companies are carefully analyzed to see if the ratios employed by it are significantly different from those of S&P's so that their AAA ratings may be consistent vis-a-vis their own ratios rather than by S&P's ratios. Even this does not turn out to be so. CRISIL's rating reports are also analyzed for any qualitative reasons for the award of AAA ratings. No strong reasons are found. Thus it is concluded that the discriminating ability of CRISIL's ratings vis-à-vis risk and hence their meaningfulness and usability are in general questionable. This conclusion assumes all the more significance in the light of interest rates being allowed to be determined by market forces, and the interest rates in turn being linked to credit-worthiness of the borrowers more than ever before. Thus, the paper strengthens the case for more credit rating agencies both in the private as well public sector for making the rating business competitive. It also provides a more objective framework for assessing the performance of credit rating agencies in general.

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Working Papers | 1991

The Nash-Bargaining Solution for Public Sector Pricing Problems

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper e study some issues in positive second-best theory, specifically the theory of optimal pricing of private goods produced by public firms; that is, firms whose objective departs from profit maximization. The approach in this paper differs from earlier analysis of the so-called Ramsey pricing problem, in that we embed our problem in a bargaining theory framework.

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Working Papers | 1991

Computer Based Itinerary Planning on Transportation Systems

G. Raghuram and Shobana R

Customers seek to know the best way of getting from an origin to a destination on a transportation system. Knowing the best way, i.e., itinerary planning, becomes all the more important when there are varied choices depending on the desired starting day and time at the origin or a required arrival day and time at the destination. Other considerations like cost, number of connections, etc., also play a role in the planning of an itinerary. A computer based system could enhance a customer's ability to make better choices in itinerary planning. No such system exists in either the Airlines, Railways, or Road Transport Corporations in India. This paper describes an interactive PC – based computer system developed by the authors, for itinerary planning on airlines (Indian Airlines and Vayudoot). The paper is supplemented by four annexures to facilitate further development covering system flow charts, structure of the database for maintenance and the implementation of the shortest and the k-shortest path algorithms. A users manual for the package is also provided.

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