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Working Papers | 1993

Arima Model for and Forecasts on Tea Production in India

Gupta G S

The paper explains the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (Box-Jenkins) model in detail, develops an ARIMA model for tea production in India using monthly data for the period Jan. 1979 through July 1991, and applies the so developed model to forecast tea production during the future 12 months. On verification through several statistical techniques including the accuracy of sample period forecasts, the model is found to be quite strong. The post sample period forecasts are consistent with the seasonal pattern of the data in past 12 years and this enhances the model's credibility. As per the results, tea production in India during the post-sample one year is expected to be fluctuating between a low of 14,300 tonnes during Feb.-March 1992 to 90,600 tonnes in July 1992; the actual data for these periods are not yet available in published form.

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Working Papers | 1993

Review of the Policy Changes in the Indian Telecom Sector: Implications for Decision Makers

Rekha Jain

In response to the business needs of faster, cheaper, and more varied modes of communication, the telecommunication sector in many countries has been undergoing rapid technological and structural changes over the past few years. Since the mid 80s, the telecommunication sector in India, too, has undergone major transformations. Private participation in the manufacture of end user equipment and services, reorganization of the monolithic Department of Telecommunication, and raising finances from the public for investment in the state owned factories and organizations have been some of the policy initiatives of the government. In a scenario where the features of the Indian telecom sector such as under-investment, amalgamation of regulatory and operational functions, ill-defined sector policies, and lack of financial and administrative autonomy are common to many other developing countries, the consequences of sectoral changes have implications both for decision makers at the national level as well as in other developing countries. This paper attempts to critically review the policy changes initiated by the government and draw lessons from them.

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Working Papers | 1993

On WACC Specifications and Capital Structure Decisions: Some Conceptual Propositions for Practicing Managers

Korwar Ashok and Ragunathan V

Recent advances in our understanding of capital structure decisions have not yet made their mark upon our capital budgeting techniques and practices. This paper attempts to bridge this gap. In doing this, it offers a surprisingly simple approach for managers to follow in marking financial decisions. The theory of corporate finance notes two alternative specifications of the weighted average cost of capital for discounting. In one, the cost of debt is specified in pre-tax terms while the tax shield on debt is accounted for in the cast flows. In another, the cost of debt is specified in after tax terms while the tax shield on interest is ignored in the cash flows. Theoretically the two alternative specifications of WACC and cash flows are considered equivalent. In practical terms, however, what concerns a manager is which of the two specifications he should employ in financial analysis. In this paper, we take the view that the first specification above is superior to the second one on several counts: for one, it is conceptually closer to our intuitive understanding of cost. Further, it facilitates taking explicit account of a number of important considerations such as certain costs which alone can explain capital structures not tending towards 100% debt. It also allows us to explicitly consider tax shields on interest only in time periods in which they can actually be absorbed; it permits us to handle bonds, common in India, where the coupon rate of interest is different from the yield to maturity; and to incorporate the loss in value from equity issues made below market price. This insight leads us to a resolution of the perennially vexing issue of how to value debt and leases. We go on to propose a simple two-step procedure for making financial decisions. This leads us, in conclusion, to call for a new and more meaningful distinction to replace the conventional distinction between investment decisions and financing decisions.

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Working Papers | 1993

Managerial Effectiveness as Related to Organizational Climate and Leadership Effectiveness Among Bank Employees in India

Pathak R D, Dhamani A N, and Pestonjee D M

A sample of 196 branch managers from public sector banks in India was selected to study the relationship of managerial effectiveness with motivational climate and leadership effectiveness. Self-ratings by managers and subordinates ratings of their managers' effectiveness did not differ significantly. Out of 24 characteristics of managerial effectiveness, managers gave first three ranks to: competence and responsible, good work ethics, and work quality. 'Adaptability factor' was given the 21st rank by all managers which have an important implication in terms of managerial development. Motivational climate of the organization was seen as characterized by 'extension', 'achievement' and 'expert influence.' The co relational analysis of managerial effectiveness with organizational climate dimensions suggest that branch managers are not considering themselves in the role of 'change agents' rather there is tendency to stick to rules and procedures. The findings also suggest that an effective manager is likely to be an effective leader but an effective leader may not be an effective manager. The relationship between leadership style effectiveness and managerial effectiveness needs further investigation utilizing a leadership effectiveness instrument with known psychometric qualities.

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Working Papers | 1993

Strictly Fair Allocations in Economics with a Public Good

Lahiri Somdeb

In this paper we define the concept of strictly fair allocations in economies with public good and show that an equal income Lindahl Equilibrium allocation is strictly fair conversely if an allocation is strictly fair in every replication of the basic economy it must be an equal income Lindahl equilibrium allocation.

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Working Papers | 1993

Industrial Growth During the VIII th Plan Five Plan Period and Beyond

Sandesara J C

This paper attempts to answer three questions: (1) Is the Eighth Plan target of 8.2% rate of growth likely to be attained? (2) Is the target of 9-10% rate of growth of industrial production that is likely to be set in the IXth and Xth plans realistic? (3) How are the social objectives of industrial policy, namely promotion of small industry, reduction in regional imbalances, and prevention of concentration of economic power: likely to fare in the short and long periods? The answers to these questions in the above order are: (1) The Eighth Plan target of 8.2% is unattainable: 7% seems a more realistic target. (2) The Ninth and Tenth Plan targets of 9-10% seem attainable. (3) The prospects of progress on social objectives in the near future are not quite good: but seem to be bright in the period beyond the Eighth Plan.

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of NAFTA on Indo-Canadian Trade

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Kumar N Ganesh

The changes in the global trading scenario, particularly the emergence of regional trading blocs have far reaching effects on world trade. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) comprising of Canada, Mexico and the USA s the latest one in this regard. It is feared that when NAFTA is in place it can adversely affect India's exports to the NAFTA countries. In this paper we examine the implications of NAFTA on the Indo-Canadian trade. We also critically evaluate the option of joining NAFTA for India.

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Working Papers | 1993

Implications of the Sectoral Targets of India Eigth Five year Plan

Ravindra H. Dholakia

The paper examines critically the implications of the sectoral targets of income and employment growth coupled with the investment allocations as envisaged in India's Eighth Five Year Plan. The implications are worked out on the labor income per unit of investment, required economic rate of return on project investments and the rate of total factor productivity growth by sectors. As was the case with the Seventh Five Year Plan, the Eighth Plan also appears to lack consistency.

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Working Papers | 1993

Indian Economic Forecast March 1993

Rastogi A B

Although not spelt out by the Finance Minister as preparing ground for the EFF/ESAF loan from the IMF, it is a path-breaking budget with a strong emphasis on restructuring the economy and the augmenting supply side of the economy. The medium-term funding facility from the IMF/WB with concessional loan would act as insurance and paper over the ripples generated in the goods market and financial assets market due to restructuring of the economy. To ameliorate short term consequences on labor, the labor market reforms are being handled in a politically deft manner. The economic strategy in the medium term is quite clear, go for growth and supply side incentives and push for structural reform. Monetary policy of the government is quite tight and as inflation falls rapidly the government should bring down interest rates quickly to maintain the momentum of private sector investment to enhance productive capacity of the economy. The success of the reform programmes hinges on sustained growth of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors which is inexorable linked to productive investment in these sectors.

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Working Papers | 1993

Trappings of Expertise and the Pursuit of Failure

Ramanarayan S

In the past, people learnt about dealing with complex situations through life experiences. With the availability of computer simulations, it seems feasible to supplement 'life' as a teacher to foster learning about the challenges of complex, dynamic, and uncertain realities. This paper describes a computer simulation of a business organization used with 20 groups of participants. Each group had three members and was expected to manage 24 months of the organization in 3 hours of simulation time. The simulation threw up some interesting behavioral patterns, and provided some insights into the typical errors in the planning and decision making behaviors of specialists. For example, it was found that despite a flood of analysts, several specialists seemed hesitant to apply yardsticks, make choices, and take stands. So there was a strong tendency to avoid or postpone action taking. It was also found that each group developed a routine for data collection. Using the metaphor of 'control panel', the paper examines how routinization channelizes the attention of the group in certain directions and away from certain areas. Several implicit assumptions were identified which blocked the learning of groups from experience. The paper discusses the behavioral patterns reflective of the assumptions. For example, there was a strong tendency to shrink when things did not go as planned. They key concern was found to be with minimizing mistakes. The concluding section discusses some of the self-reflective comments of the participants and the role of organizational simulation exercises for management training. An attempt has been made to explore the notion of strategic orientation as heightened awareness of the choice points that one encounters. A strategic mind develops better understanding of the functioning of complex systems, and retains its flexibility with respect to the choice points rather than getting entrenched in set behavioral patterns.

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