Annual consumption of fertilizers has increased from less than 100,000 metric tons of nutrients in the early 1950s to 8.2 million metric tons (mmts) by 1984/85. The Seventh Five Year Plan aims at raising it to 14 mmts by 1989/90. The task of accelerating growth in fertilizer consumption extends beyond the Seventh Plan period because virtually all further growth in crop production will have to come from continuous increases in yields and all proven yield-increasing technologies depend on high levels of fertilizer application. Thus the real question concerning the future is not whether but how to accelerate growth in fertilizer us and ensure its maximum effectiveness in crop production. This paper discusses the above question by examining the past experience within a heuristic framework. The single most important conclusion of the paper is as follows: Because of the constraints on lowering prices of fertilizers and also on raising support prices of crops, non-price policies will be more crucial than ever before in determining the pace of future growth in fertilizer consumption. This, however, is no ground for pessimism about acceleration in future growth of fertilizer consumption or defeatist attitude in evolving policies required for the purpose. Under the present price environment, there is a vast scope to accelerate growth in fertilizer consumption through non-price policies which improve efficiency of fertilizer use, shift response functions up wards, and remove deficiencies in agricultural research, extension, and credit as well as fertilizer supply and distinction system.
