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3721 items in total found

Working Papers | 2021

Central bank gold reserves and sovereign credit risk

Sawan Rathi, Sanket Mohapatra, and Arvind Sahay

Gold holdings with central banks are often considered to play a stabilizing role in times of crisis. This paper performs a cross-country panel data analysis of developed and developing countries to determine whether gold holdings of central banks contribute to sovereign creditworthiness. Our analysis confirms that an increase in central bank gold reserves reduces the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of a country. We also observe that during global crisis and country-specific crisis episodes, the role of central bank gold becomes even more important. In robustness tests, we account for potential endogeneity of central bank gold reserves using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The findings highlight the importance of gold in central bank reserves and indicate a positive role of gold in mitigating a nations external vulnerabilities in an uncertain global economic environment.

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Working Papers | 2021

A General Purpose Exact Solution Method for Mixed
Integer Concave Minimization Problems (revised as on 12/08/2021)

Ankur Sinha, Arka Das, Guneshwar Anand, and Sachin Jayaswal

In this article, we discuss an exact algorithm for mixed integer concave minimization problems. A piece wise inner-approximation of the concave function is achieved using an auxiliary linear program that leads to a bilevel program, which provides a lower bound to the original problem. The bilevel program is reduced to a single-level formulation with the help of Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT) conditions. Incorporating the KKT conditions lead to complementary slackness conditions that are linearized using BigM. Multiple bilevel programs, When solved over iterations, guarantee convergence to the exact optimum of the original problem. Though the algorithm is general and can be applied to any optimization
problem with concave function(s), in this paper, we solve two common classes of operations and supply chain problems; namely, the concave knapsack problem, and the concave production transportation problem. The computational experiments indicate that our proposed approach out performs the customized methods that have been used in the literature to solve the two classes of problems by an order of magnitude in most of the test cases.

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Working Papers | 2021

Equity portfolio diversification: how many stocks are enough? Evidence from India

Rajan Raju and Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla

How many stocks are required to reduce unsystematic risk significantly is an important question for investors. While there is a large body of research on the subject in the United States, there is little formal work on this question in India. We show that a 15-20 stock portfolio, the traditional market rule-of-thumb for a diversified portfolio, is likely inadequate to minimise unsystematic risk. We show that an investor could target to reduce diversifiable risk by 90% with a 90% confidence with a portfolio of 40-50 stocks. We build a practical framework that serves as a baseline for investors to target a specific reduction in diversifiable unsystematic risk at a chosen confidence level.

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Working Papers | 2021

Doctrinal Conflict in Foreign Investment Regulation in India: NTT Docomo vs. Tata Sons and the Case for "Downside Protection"

M.P. Ram Mohan, Nobuhisa Ishizuka, and Sidharth Sharma

The strategic importance of India as an investment destination for foreign investors is highlighted by ongoing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, and the recognition that a strong economic relationship with India is in the interests of countries seeking a more stable balance of power in the region. From a policy perspective, India has struggled to balance its own economic interests with the commercial requirements of investors. Rules attempting to strike this balance have created uncertainties that have resulted in investors seeking greater protections, which in turn have triggered additional regulatory responses. The prevalent use of put options by foreign investors, whereby Indian parties are required to buy out their counterparties at pre-determined prices, has been a prominent subject of these regulations. India's judiciary has been drawn into this cycle through actions brought by foreign investors seeking to enforce arbitration awards validating their exit rights. In the process, they have created their own interpretation of the applicability of foreign investment rules that support principles of freedom of contract. This doctrinal conflict with regulatory policy is illustrated by a high-profile dispute involving one of Japan's largest and most well-known companies, NTT Docomo, and one of India's largest and most trusted companies, Tata Sons. Japan views India as a key strategic partner and in particular, views strong economic ties as a central linchpin of the partnership. Using, principally, the Docomo-Tata case as an example, and a review of other similar disputes, this paper analyses the regulatory and judicial doctrines that have shaped foreign investment regulation in India and explores the public policy implications of the conflict for India. In doing so, it proposes regulatory reforms to provide more clarity and certainty for investors, suggesting that express recognition of "downside protection" for investments provides a rational balance between private commercial interests and public regulatory objectives.

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Working Papers | 2021

A 2020 Vision of India's Farm Market Reforms

Satish Y. Deodhar

Concern for farmers and market facilitation by the state is as old as Indian civilization. In the
post-Independence era, this concern was addressed by provision of market-yards for the
farmers through APMC Acts of the state governments; and, by announcements of minimum
support prices (MSP) for quite a few crops by the central government. Over time, however,
these initiatives had their unintended consequences. APMC markets turned into monopsonies and central government has never committed itself to buying all produce at MSP from Indian farmers, except perhaps from a few states such as Punjab and Haryana. Contract farming was successful in a few states and for a few products; however, it never reached any threshold in most states. In this context, I discuss the institutional structure of the Indian farm markets and a few policy initiatives from the past. Thereafter, I present the main features of the new farm acts introduced in 2020 and emphasize the importance of their implementation.

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Working Papers | 2021

Determinants of Disagreement: Learning from Indian Inflation Expectations Survey of Households

Gaurav Kumar Singh and Tathagata Bandyopadhyay

This study explores the determinants of disagreement in households belief on future inflation. Households commonly show strong information rigidity as a consequence of stickiness in their information update (Mankiw and Reis, 2002, 2006). This paper contributes to the understanding of the formation of disagreement of the Indian households by investigating the effects of - day to day purchasing experiences of the agents, the intensity of news about inflation in the media, and central bank transparency. We find the positive effects of their recent price experiences, media influence, and inflation targeting on lowering the disagreement. Female and Young people tend to exhibit stronger effects in comparison to their counterparts.

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Popular Press | 2020

Experts Explain: Loss of income; ground-up assessment of recovery support to households (with Rajesh Shukla)

Rama Bijapurkar

The Indian Express

Popular Press | 2020

Only half of India's household consumption will come through post covid (with Rajesh Shukla)

Rama Bijapurkar

liveMint

Popular Press | 2020

Philanthropy during Covid-19 crisis: Role of crowdfunding platforms (with Vimalkumar M and Sujeet K Sharma)

Rajesh Chandwani

ETGovernment.com

Popular Press | 2020

It's time to flatten the pandemic stereotyping, (with George Kandathil, Joshy Jacob)

Rama Mohana Turaga

The Hindu

IIMA