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Working Papers | 2020

Strategies for solving wicked problems of true uncertainty: Tackling pandemics like Covid-19
(Version: April 13, 2020)

Ajeet N. Mathur

This paper has three objectives: first to locate Covid-19 as a 'wicked problem' characterized by 'true uncertainty' that challenges strategists and unrolls new research agenda; second, to examine the inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary dimensions of the endeavours to contain the pandemic that point to the need for new conversations beyond national boundaries; and thirdly to propose, based on interpretive pattern recognition methodologies, a five pronged approach for the immediate future after the lockdown. The study points to the need for further research on how epidemiological imperatives, disease burdens, economic adversities, civic community cohesions and political compulsions come together to resolve tensions between costs, efficiency and equity in formulating responses to emergencies.

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Working Papers | 2020

A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)

Sebastian Morris

Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume that the containment and preventive actions continue unabated. We also provide an upper bound to the final cases and deaths that are likely. Right now (with data up to April 1) the projections for Korea, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, UK have been made. We hope to update the same in due course as the disease progresses. In the UK the deaths are bound to increase, and in Italy the cases could rise further.

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Working Papers | 2020

Incubation in India – A Multilevel Analysis

Supriya Sharma and Neharika Vohra

This chapter undertakes a multi-level analysis of incubation in India with an objective to assess the landscape of incubation, the role and impact of incubators on startups, and understand challenges faced both by incubators and incubatees. Secondary data from 284 incubators across India and four largest incubator support schemes, survey of 22 incubation centres funded by a support scheme, and in-depth interviews of incubated entrepreneurs were collected and analysed. The purpose, objectives, processes and success metrics of incubators specific to Indian context are discussed. Contributions from this chapter will be useful to researchers, policy makers and incubation champions. The chapter may be of particular relevance to countries that are developing strong startup and incubation ecosystems.

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Working Papers | 2020

Development of Utility Function for Vehicle Insurance: Comparison of Logarithmic Goal Programming Method and Conjoint Analysis Method

Sumeetha R. Natesan and Goutam Dutta

The increase in competition among the vehicle insurance sectors has increased the number of policy options available in the market. This study focuses on the development of a utility function for these policies that will aid policy holders and potential investors in comparing them based on various attributes. A comparison of various vehicle insurance policies can help the customers to compare and choose a vehicle insurance that is suitable to them. Although there are several methods for developing a utility function, in this study, we intend to develop a linear utility model for vehicle insurance policies using two approaches: Logarithmic Goal Programming Model (LGPM) and Conjoint Analysis Method (CAM). We propose to compare the similarities and differences between the results obtained from LGPM and CAM approaches, used for developing the utility function for vehicle insurance policies. We also derive a choice probability of the vehicles insurance policies available in market by developing a multinomial logit choice model. We also study the consistency indicators of the respondents. We will provide useful insights for the use both approaches as research tools.

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Working Papers | 2020

A Mathematical Programming Approach with Revenue Management in Home Loan Pricing (Revised as on 20-12-2021)

Goutam Dutta, Sumeetha R. Natesan, Deepika Thakur, and Manoj K. Tiwari

This paper enumerates the benefits of revenue management to the banks and the points to be considered while creating a revenue management and dynamic pricing model. Further it explains the differences in the application of these concepts to the financial sector as opposed to other sectors. We then delve into the method of giving home loans after identifying the major parameters that play a role in it. We formulate a dynamic pricing model for home loans for a bank. The model optimizes the net present value of money available subject to pricing limits, cash flows. It also considers the default probability as a function of interest rate. We then assume different versions of demand function. We consider when demand function is given by a straight line, an exponential function and by rectangular hyperbola. In all the three cases we have demonstrated that the dynamic pricing of home loans does yield better results than the currently used static pricing.

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Journal Articles | 2019

Contestations around water allocation during a climate crisis in India: The case of 'IPL vs. drought'

Arpit Shah and Navdeep Mathur

Global Environmental Change

In this paper, we analyze a major controversy regarding the allocation of water for Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket matches during a period of extreme drought in the state of Maharashtra in India. We use a discursive approach to public policy to understand water policy production and to analyze the competing narratives on water advanced by opposing discourse coalitions during the ‘IPL vs. drought’ controversy. We find that the neoliberal view of ‘water as an economic good’ is dominant and institutionalized in the water allocation priorities determined by the Maharashtra State government. This is resisted by civil society actors like Loksatta and by the Indian judiciary, who view ‘water as a Human Right.’ Our reading of the ‘IPL vs. drought’ public interest litigation (PIL) shows that Loksatta’s decision to target water allocation for the IPL through the Courts leverages the popularity of the IPL in the Indian media, as well as the uneven unfolding of neoliberalism across institutions of the state in India. At the same time, Loksatta’s PIL focuses solely on the IPL and does not pay attention to the water allocation to larger users like industry and sugarcane cultivation that best represent the institutionalization of the neoliberal view of water in Maharashtra. We argue that the focus on the IPL makes it the site of contesting water policy on ideological grounds. We conclude by examining the challenge provided by Loksatta’s PIL to the dominant neoliberal view of water in Maharashtra.

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Journal Articles | 2019

A new family of fuzzy discrete choice models

Manish Aggarwal

IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems

Often in real-world decision making, it is difficult to crisply evaluate the utility values as required in the case of conventional choice models. Besides, a decision maker (DM) has his/her own relative importance for each of the attributes. The attributes may also be interacting positively (synergy) or negatively, the degree of which is specific to the DM. A new family of discrete choice models is introduced with a motivation that takes into account the human factors in real-world multiattribute decision making. More specifically, the proposed choice models are based on fuzzy subjective utilities that are easier to elicit. The proposed models are further extended to take into account the unique attitudinal character of the DM, the relative weight vector, and the degree of interaction among the different attributes. A real case study illustrates the usefulness of the study.

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Journal Articles | 2019

Confidence soft sets and applications in supplier selection

Manish Aggarwal

Computers & Industrial Engineering

The evaluation of the alternatives against multiple criteria is of the utmost importance in a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. It is often the case that the experts have a varying degree of confidence in their evaluations. That is, an evaluation has an associated degree of credibility. To take into account this crucial piece of information in determining the best choice, we present a new data structure. More specifically, we present a confidence-based soft set. We also extend the same to the fuzzy and intuitionistic fuzzy domains. The proposed concepts are elucidated through a number of illustrative examples. We establish their usefulness in a real case-study.

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Journal Articles | 2019

Antecedents to innovation in emerging markets: Evidence from India

Mohammad Fuad and Arun Kumar Jain

International Journal of Innovation Management

Firms utilise both internal and external knowledge reservoirs in order to innovate. This study explores the drivers of innovation specifically, role of business groups, alliances, degree of internationalisation and financial slack on innovation. Hypotheses are tested using patent data on a sample of Indian firms. Group affiliation, financial slack and degree of internationalisation are found to positively impact innovation output. This study contributes towards the nascent literature on innovation in the Indian context.

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Journal Articles | 2019

More is not always better: The case of counterterrorism security

Konrad Grabiszewski and Pritha Dev

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Can counterterrorism security be counterproductive? We argue that it can be when the at-risk population acts strategically. We model a two-stage game where the government first chooses the defensive security level for a public place. The second stage is a simultaneous-move game with terrorist choosing terror effort and members of the population deciding whether or not to attend the public place. Our key measure of the efficiency of the counterterrorism security is the expected number of casualties. Under very standard and general assumptions, we show that it is possible that more security leads to an increase in that number. This is because increasing security both discourages and encourages the terrorist. On the one hand, more security makes a successful terror attack less likely (discouragement). On the other hand, more security motivates more people to attend the public place which makes the attack more valuable to the terrorist (encouragement).

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