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Working Papers | 2020

Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition

Pranab R. Choudhury, Ranjan K. Ghosh, and Sumita Sindhi

For a COVID-19 like pandemic, the Achilles heel is an unsuspecting villain-rapid and global land use changes. The way governments, businesses and communities see, relate to and use land, not only influences the outbreak but also determines their impact on humanity and development. Drawing upon empirical evidences from epidemiology and land governance, this article argues why the current situation implores the need to focus on the interaction between land use and global diseases. Apart from dwelling on causal links, we discuss the externalities that industrial, urban and rural development in India are poised to face because of the pandemic's potential impact on land, biodiversity and wildlife habitat, property rights and housing. We also underline reform options for policy and practice, that must be discussed and acted upon.

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Working Papers | 2020

Strategies for solving wicked problems of true uncertainty: Tackling pandemics like Covid-19
(Version: April 13, 2020)

Ajeet N. Mathur

This paper has three objectives: first to locate Covid-19 as a 'wicked problem' characterized by 'true uncertainty' that challenges strategists and unrolls new research agenda; second, to examine the inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary dimensions of the endeavours to contain the pandemic that point to the need for new conversations beyond national boundaries; and thirdly to propose, based on interpretive pattern recognition methodologies, a five pronged approach for the immediate future after the lockdown. The study points to the need for further research on how epidemiological imperatives, disease burdens, economic adversities, civic community cohesions and political compulsions come together to resolve tensions between costs, efficiency and equity in formulating responses to emergencies.

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Working Papers | 2020

Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020)

Sebastian Morris

We had earlier estimated the likely cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic for a number of countries. This was an early attempt and gave somewhat tentative results. With some 7 more days of data being now available, better estimates are possible which we bring out in this paper. As in the previous paper we use a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths, to estimate the zero growth level of cases and deaths. We also provide an upper bound to these estimates. The earlier estimates are further reinforced, and new estimates are made for a select set of countries where the growth rates in the numbers of cases, and in deaths have begun to decline. We also give estimates of the current growth rates in cases and deaths that these countries are likely to witness.
The study as before presumes that the spread of infection is one-stage logistic process, once significant numbers of infections have taken place. This may not be true of countries which witnessed low deaths and cases. In countries that have witnessed much spread and deaths relative to their populations and with more sustainable approaches to containment may not witness significantly more deaths than what has happened thus far. This would be the case of Iran, Italy. China and Korea too with their rather highly coordinated approach despite low spread of cases and low number of deaths relative to their population would along with Iran, Italy and Denmark and Turkey would most likely not see a secondary wave of infections.
Argentina and South Africa show very high growth rate in deaths even the increase in cases have slowed down considerable. Spain has stabilized its growth in deaths to nearly zero levels bit since the cases are continuing to grow at around 5.7% the death rates could again turn positive after a while. Germany and Indonesia show continuing rise in deaths and cases at moderately high rates. Japan, Malaysia, Brazil and Singapore show low to moderate death rates, but since the rise in cases continues to be between 5 and 8%, these low(Japan) moderate growth rate in deaths are likely to continue for a while before they fall to zero. France, Sweden Australia and Thailand would see continuing growth in cases at moderate rates even though the growth in deaths continue to be at high rates.
The US most notably shows very high growth rates in both deaths and in cases indicating that the deaths at high rates are likely to continue for a while.
While estimates are made for Canada, India, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, UK and the Philippines, they are of limited value since it is too early for the logistic model to fit. However, all of these except Russia show high death rates and high case rates. These countries could all see continuing rise in cases before the decline in rates happen, so that their current decline in death rates even when statistically significant could change for the worse. We have as in the previous paper used a logistic model to estimate the current growth rates, and made forecasts of the ultimate stable cases and deaths before these stop rising any further. For 26 countries (with a combined population of 3.8 billion) the total cases as on date 9th /10th April was where the logistic trend has been realized for cases, was 1.36 million. We expect the cases to rise to a maximum in the countries covered to 2.9 million.
The death trends in only 22 of the 29 countries considered had stabilized to a logistic model. In these 22 countries (with a combined population of 3.7billion) the deaths as on date were 87,472. These would surely rise to between 121,000 to 355,000 before stabilizing.
In the estimates above India most notably has not been included, since its trends have not yet stablised to a logistic unfoldment. At present it is engaged in a titanic struggle through near complete lock downs to restrict the cases and deaths to low levels. Whether this would work to quell the spread to very levels, or whether the problem explodes later is still an open question.

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Working Papers | 2020

A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)

Sebastian Morris

Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume that the containment and preventive actions continue unabated. We also provide an upper bound to the final cases and deaths that are likely. Right now (with data up to April 1) the projections for Korea, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, UK have been made. We hope to update the same in due course as the disease progresses. In the UK the deaths are bound to increase, and in Italy the cases could rise further.

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Working Papers | 2020

Incubation in India – A Multilevel Analysis

Supriya Sharma and Neharika Vohra

This chapter undertakes a multi-level analysis of incubation in India with an objective to assess the landscape of incubation, the role and impact of incubators on startups, and understand challenges faced both by incubators and incubatees. Secondary data from 284 incubators across India and four largest incubator support schemes, survey of 22 incubation centres funded by a support scheme, and in-depth interviews of incubated entrepreneurs were collected and analysed. The purpose, objectives, processes and success metrics of incubators specific to Indian context are discussed. Contributions from this chapter will be useful to researchers, policy makers and incubation champions. The chapter may be of particular relevance to countries that are developing strong startup and incubation ecosystems.

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Working Papers | 2020

Development of Utility Function for Vehicle Insurance: Comparison of Logarithmic Goal Programming Method and Conjoint Analysis Method

Sumeetha R. Natesan and Goutam Dutta

The increase in competition among the vehicle insurance sectors has increased the number of policy options available in the market. This study focuses on the development of a utility function for these policies that will aid policy holders and potential investors in comparing them based on various attributes. A comparison of various vehicle insurance policies can help the customers to compare and choose a vehicle insurance that is suitable to them. Although there are several methods for developing a utility function, in this study, we intend to develop a linear utility model for vehicle insurance policies using two approaches: Logarithmic Goal Programming Model (LGPM) and Conjoint Analysis Method (CAM). We propose to compare the similarities and differences between the results obtained from LGPM and CAM approaches, used for developing the utility function for vehicle insurance policies. We also derive a choice probability of the vehicles insurance policies available in market by developing a multinomial logit choice model. We also study the consistency indicators of the respondents. We will provide useful insights for the use both approaches as research tools.

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Working Papers | 2020

A Mathematical Programming Approach with Revenue Management in Home Loan Pricing (Revised as on 20-12-2021)

Goutam Dutta, Sumeetha R. Natesan, Deepika Thakur, and Manoj K. Tiwari

This paper enumerates the benefits of revenue management to the banks and the points to be considered while creating a revenue management and dynamic pricing model. Further it explains the differences in the application of these concepts to the financial sector as opposed to other sectors. We then delve into the method of giving home loans after identifying the major parameters that play a role in it. We formulate a dynamic pricing model for home loans for a bank. The model optimizes the net present value of money available subject to pricing limits, cash flows. It also considers the default probability as a function of interest rate. We then assume different versions of demand function. We consider when demand function is given by a straight line, an exponential function and by rectangular hyperbola. In all the three cases we have demonstrated that the dynamic pricing of home loans does yield better results than the currently used static pricing.

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Journal Articles | 2019

Contestations around water allocation during a climate crisis in India: The case of 'IPL vs. drought'

Arpit Shah and Navdeep Mathur

Global Environmental Change

In this paper, we analyze a major controversy regarding the allocation of water for Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket matches during a period of extreme drought in the state of Maharashtra in India. We use a discursive approach to public policy to understand water policy production and to analyze the competing narratives on water advanced by opposing discourse coalitions during the ‘IPL vs. drought’ controversy. We find that the neoliberal view of ‘water as an economic good’ is dominant and institutionalized in the water allocation priorities determined by the Maharashtra State government. This is resisted by civil society actors like Loksatta and by the Indian judiciary, who view ‘water as a Human Right.’ Our reading of the ‘IPL vs. drought’ public interest litigation (PIL) shows that Loksatta’s decision to target water allocation for the IPL through the Courts leverages the popularity of the IPL in the Indian media, as well as the uneven unfolding of neoliberalism across institutions of the state in India. At the same time, Loksatta’s PIL focuses solely on the IPL and does not pay attention to the water allocation to larger users like industry and sugarcane cultivation that best represent the institutionalization of the neoliberal view of water in Maharashtra. We argue that the focus on the IPL makes it the site of contesting water policy on ideological grounds. We conclude by examining the challenge provided by Loksatta’s PIL to the dominant neoliberal view of water in Maharashtra.

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Journal Articles | 2019

Confidence soft sets and applications in supplier selection

Manish Aggarwal

Computers & Industrial Engineering

The evaluation of the alternatives against multiple criteria is of the utmost importance in a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. It is often the case that the experts have a varying degree of confidence in their evaluations. That is, an evaluation has an associated degree of credibility. To take into account this crucial piece of information in determining the best choice, we present a new data structure. More specifically, we present a confidence-based soft set. We also extend the same to the fuzzy and intuitionistic fuzzy domains. The proposed concepts are elucidated through a number of illustrative examples. We establish their usefulness in a real case-study.

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Journal Articles | 2019

The leadership of the school principal: Impact on teachers' job crafting, alienation and commitment

Sanket Dash and Neharika Vohra

Management Research Review

Purpose

The mechanisms through which superiors’ leadership styles and subordinates’ internal cognitions affect subordinates’ actual behaviour and attitudes are relatively unexplored in most contexts. This paper aims to bridge the gap by exploring the mediating effect of teachers’ cognitions (psychological empowerment) in the relationship between principals’ leadership style (empowering leadership) and teachers’ behaviour (job crafting) and attitudes (work alienation and organizational commitment).

Design/methodology/approach

Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used on data obtained from 624 teachers of primary classes in Indian private schools.

Findings

Psychological empowerment partially mediates the relationship between empowering leadership and job crafting and job crafting partially mediates the relationship between empowering leadership and work alienation and affective commitment. Work alienation partially mediates the relationship between job crafting and affective commitment. Empowering leadership has a direct effect on job crafting.

Research limitations/implications

Due to the lack of longitudinal data, causality cannot be established. Also, there are concerns about the factor structure of scales.

Practical implications

Principals demonstrating empowering leadership can help teachers become more proactive and feel more empowered, less alienated and more committed. More proactive teachers and less alienated teachers are more likely to engage in self-initiated professional development and collaboration, thereby improving the teaching-learning process. Though this study was done in the school context, it is believed that the findings can plausibly apply to managers/leaders who work with complex, ambiguous work and knowledge workers.

Originality/value

First, the study extends the research on job crafting by studying the relationship between leadership style (empowering leadership) and job crafting. Second, the identification of the mechanisms through which leaders (principals) can help subordinates (teachers) find meaning in work (reduction in alienation) and develop commitment is an original contribution.

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IIMA