Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities in the Context of Decision-Making

01/03/1976

Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities in the Context of Decision-Making

Sarin R K

Working Papers

  • facebook
  • linkedin
  • twitter
  • whatsapp

In this paper a framework is developed to seek information from the decision-maker about uncertain events, and to use this information for identifying a preferred alternative. Existing methods are examined critically to determine the best strategy for eliciting subjective probabilities int he context of decision-making. It is shown how a preferred alternative can be identified with less than perfect knowledge of the probabilities.

IIMA