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Working Papers | 2014

Measurement Issues in State Income from Registered Manufacturing Sector – Case of Gujarat

Ravindra H. Dholakia, Manish Pandya, and Payal M. Pateriya

The present paper discusses some important issues involved in estimation of state income originating in the registered manufacturing sector with illustrations drawn from Gujarat. It highlights the present practices in preparing quick estimates for latest years when results from the regular data source of Annual Survey of Industries is not finalized. It also argues that the current practice of following single deflation method is inadequate and misleading for deriving estimates of value addition at constant prices in this sector. When the industrial structure and technology are rapidly changing with substantial differences in price trends of inputs and outputs, double deflation is the right method to serve the purpose. The paper also draws attention to micro-level inconsistencies and unexplained jumps in annual estimates of input-output ratios obtained from the ASI results. Finally, the paper points out the serious flaw of gathering information in ASI without updating regularly the Census sector frame at the state level. It results in ignoring new large and medium manufacturing units from the ASI results. It is shown for Gujarat state that more than 1000 such units remain uncovered by ASI resulting in the serious underestimation of vale addition of about 23%. This is likely to be a widespread phenomenon not confined only to Gujarat. Urgent action to address these problems will go a long way to improve quality and credibility of the estimates.

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Working Papers | 2014

Moving to Opportunity or Isolation? Network
Effects of a Slum Relocation Program in India

Sharon Barnhardt, Erica Field, and Rohini Pande

A" housing" lottery" in" a" large" Indian" city" provided" 110" out" of" 497" participants the"
opportunity" to" move" out" of" a" slum" and" into" improved" housing" on" the" citys" periphery."
Fourteen"years"after"housing"assignment,"relative" to"lottery"losers,"winners"report"better"
housing"conditions"farther"from"the"city"center,"but"no"change"in"family"income"or"human"
capital."Winners"also"state"increased"isolation" from" family"and"caste"networks"and"lower"
access" to" informal" insurance." In" particular," they" are" significantly" less" likely" to" know"
someone"they"can"rely"on"for"borrowing"needs"and"report"fewer"informal"transfers"in"the"
event" of" shocks." We" also" observe significant" program" exit:" 34%" of" winners" never" even"
moved" into" the" assigned" housing" and" 32%" eventually" exited" the" colony" to" be" closer" to"
family" and" the" city" center." Our" results" suggest" that" the" benefits" of" improved" suburban"
housing"were"offset"by"its"drawbacks"in"the"form"of"destruction"of"social"capital,"pointing"to"
the"importance"of"considering"social"networks"when"designing"housing"programs" for" the"
poor.

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Working Papers | 2014

State of Marketing Analytics in India: Prospects and Potential Challenges

Arindam Banerjee

The paper provides an overview of the state of the Marketing Analytics practice in India today, its contribution and its possible challenges for future growth. A diverse set of practitioners from multiple sectors of industries that use Analytics were interviewed on their opinions were collated, refined and inferences were made on the broad dimensions affecting the practice. The major findings were that while the need for Analytical support is growing in India, practitioners face challenges in accessing appropriate data sources to perform suitable analysis to support business decisions.

The other extreme of this challenge is noticed in the offshore space where appropriate data is in abundant supply, but analysis and policy making are still at loggerheads because of a separation in employees due to geography and expertise. This has led to a lack of synergy (or low levels) between the two functions, leading to some concern about achieving true expectation son service level.

Overall, it is noticed that investment in Analytics will grow, with increasing competition in Indian markets, movement of Analytics talent globally leading to more awareness about its benefits and the deployment of advanced technology in India by the Multinational companies.

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Working Papers | 2014

Breadth-first and Best-first Exact Procedures for Regular Measures of the Multi-mode RCPSP

Dayal Madhukar and Sanjay Verma

The multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem (MM RCPSP) is a NP-hard problem representing a generalization of the well-studied RCPSP. Depth-first tree search approach by Sprecher & Drexl (1998) is the best known exact solution tree search procedure for this problem. In this paper we present two exact solution single-processor approaches: a breadth-first approach and a best-first monotone heuristic. The comparison with depth-first and CPLEX show promising results on small problem sets. We report extension of the breadth-first approach to yield exact multi-objective solutions for the PSPLIB (Project Scheduling Problem Library, Kolisch & Sprecher, 1997) problem sets which is the first of its kind.

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Working Papers | 2014

Issues in Water Rights, Institutional Design and Pricing that Need Resolution

Sebastian Morris

In this paper the core issues that need resolution before water development especially by the private sector, and efficient usage can happen are very briefly outlined. These are

Water rights have to be defined more functionally to include tradability. There is a need to move away from price based subsidies in electricity for irrigation and in irrigation water, to endowment based subsidies where these endowments can be traded.

Administrative and organizational reform of parastatals in water, is most vital. The starting point of the same would be to grant operational autonomy and empower the leadership of water development departments. Creating institutionalized rules to overlay endowments and rights in cooperative water systems that can put free these organisations from the free-rider problem to lead to efficient management of water and to the enhancement of its generation. A strategic shift to more storage especially in the Deccan and its extensions, and to counter opposition from the post-modernist NGOs both within and outside the country by having excellent policies and actions to manage displacement and rehabilitation would also be necessary. River training for storage, canals, and recreation and navigation along with urban renewal can be an important way to finance vast infrastructure to develop cities and add to water resources as well.

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Working Papers | 2014

A Tale of Five Cities: Heat Waves, Cold Spells and Mortality Risk in Urban India

Hem H. Dholakia and Amit Garg

Background: Temperature extremes as a consequence of changing climate are known to have large morbidity and mortality impacts. Studies assessing mortality risk due to heat waves and cold spells are largely absent in urban India. Addressing this gap is critical in developing adaptation measures to protect the health of vulnerable populations in urban India.
Methods: Daily all-cause mortality, temperature and humidity data were collected for five cities-Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Shimla spanning 2005 - 2012. We developed Poisson regression models to study 'the main temperature effect' as well as 'additional impacts' of sustained high and low temperatures (i.e. heat and cold waves) on all-cause mortality risk.
Results: We find large heterogeneity among mortality risks across urban areas. Typically, risks increase with intensity of heat (cold) waves. Populations in hotter environments may be more susceptible to cold related impacts and vice-versa. Across urban areas the main temperature effect captures most of the mortality risk. We find that 'additional impacts' due to sustained temperatures (heat and cold waves) is not significant.
Conclusions: This is one of the first multi-city studies to examine mortality risk due to heat and cold waves in Indian cities that are spread across climatic regions and topographies. Our findings highlight the need for developing planned adaptation measures in Indian cities to minimize health impacts.

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Working Papers | 2014

Forecast Accuracy Along Booking Profile in the National Railways of an Emerging Asian Economy: Comparison of Different Techniques

Goutam Dutta and Divya Pachisia

The National Railways of an Emerging Asian Economy (NREAE), the second largest railway network in the world, is facing growing challenges from low fare airlines. To combat these challenges, NREAE has to adopt revenue management systems where efficient forecasting plays a crucial role. In this paper, we make an attempt to compare various forecasting techniques to predict railway bookings for the final day of departure. We use NREAE data of 2005-2008 for a particular railway route, apply time series [moving average, exponential smoothing, and Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA), linear regression, and revenue management techniques (additive, incremental, and multiplicative pickup] to it and compare various methods. To make an efficient forecast over a booking horizon, we employ a weighted forecasting method (a blend of time series and revenue management forecasts) and find that it is successful in producing average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) less than 10% for all fare classes across all days of the week except one class. The advantage of the model is that it produces efficient forecasts by attaching different weights across the booking period.

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Working Papers | 2014

Business Dispute Resolution: Taking Arbitration Clause Seriously

Anurag K. Agarwal

Dispute resolution through arbitration is the chosen method for businesses, however, it has often been experienced that due to a poorly drafted arbitration clause in the main contract or in a separate contract, there is no effective arbitration between the parties and there is a new dispute regarding the existence of the arbitration clause, which has to be resolved at the preliminary stage so as to enable the parties to take part in arbitration proceedings or go ahead with litigation in the public courts. The possibility of a decision regarding the interpretation of arbitration clause be appealed in a higher court depends on the nature of parties and the amount at stake. Litigious parties, not willing to budge even a little, have no qualms in fighting it out till the highest court. And, in this process the original dispute takes a back seat. The paper examines some of the interesting disputes regarding the arbitration clause, which were decided by courts, and could have easily been avoided had the parties been cautious at the time of entering into the contract. The paper also provides suggestions for some common and avoidable problems to help businesses save time, effort and money which otherwise get wasted in getting the dispute resolution clause interpreted in the courts.

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Working Papers | 2014

Location Identification for Rapid Evacuation from a
Disaster Site: A Case Study from KAPS

Debjit Roy, Anuj Sharma, Ashish Kumar, and Vivek Saurabh

Robust plans need to be developed for rapidly evacuating victims from a nuclear disaster site. Although nuclear plants are constructed with multiple redundant safety features, the chances of a leak can never be zero. In the event of a nuclear disaster, there is a need for an efficient evacuation plan for the affected area. The plan should include shortest possible evacuation routes, rallying post for the evacuees and optimized resource allocation. Considering Bardoli as the affected area for our purposes, we have collected data like distance of each village from the radiation source, its road connectivity with nearby villages, population and availability of transportation resource. We proposed First Safety Point (FSP) for each village and its respective rallying post while providing the detailed evacuation route for each village. We have also developed a resource optimizing heuristic to allocate transportation resources to each village.

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Working Papers | 2014

Priority Service System Optimization under Service Level Constraints

Sachin Jayaswal

We consider a service system that serves one class of customers, which is willing to pay a premium for a faster delivery, with priority over the other class, which is more price sensitive but is willing to wait longer. The demand from one class depends not only on the price and delivery time quoted to it, but also on that offered to the other class. The service provider needs to select the price and delivery time quoted to the two classes, and the required service capacity to meet the quoted delivery times with a certain degree of reliability, so as to maximize its rate (per unit time) of earning profit. This results in a non-linear priority queue optimization model, for which the analytical expression for service level constraint for the low priority customers is unknown. We provide a cutting plane method to solve the problem, where constraints to be satisfied are identified iteratively from results of matrix geometric evaluation of the proposed system alternative, which are then added to the mathematical model for re-optimization.

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