The paper aims at assessing the requirement of high yielding seeds of major cereal crops in 1985 and the corresponding requirement of foundation and breeder seeds. Five major cereal crops-wheat, paddy, maize, bajra and jowar are considered. The estimation model attempted to project area under High Yielding Varieties (HYV) in 1985 by fitting trends based on the extension of area under the HYV programme between 1965-66 and 1970-71. The seed demand was projected on the basis of the extrapolated area projections based on the trends fitted. The projected area was multiplied by the state specific seed rates which were kept constant. The area under HYV and hybrids of major cereal crops will go up from 28 million acres in 1969-70 to 121 million acres in 1985. About 71% of this area will be occupied by paddy and wheat, the remaining area being diverted to the production of maize, jowar, and bajra. According to these estimates, the total seed demand is likely to increase from 5.5 lakh tonnes in 1969-70 to about 18.6 lakh tonnes in 1985. If 50% of this demand is added as reserve stock for unforeseen eventualities, the total demand will move up to about 28 lakh tonnes. About 3.8 million acres will be required under certified seed production by 1985. The corresponding demand for foundation seed, which is derived from the demand for certified seed, works out to be 79,000 tonnes. About two lakh acres will be required to produce this quantity of foundation seed. The demand for breeder seed which is derived from the demand for foundation seed, is estimated to be 3,500 tonnes by 1985. Thus as compared with the present production facilities for foundation and breeder seeds, the future facilities will have to expand almost three times. In financial terms, the volume of business of certified seed will increase from Rs 100 crores to Rs 345.5 crores in future. The volume of business for foundation seed will increase from Rs 7.7 crores to Rs 22.1 crores. The financial values for breeder seed could not be estimated.
