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3721 items in total found

Working Papers | 1974

Need based Family Planning Programmes: Content and Treatment Guidelines for T V Producers

T. V. Rao

This article presents three models of human behaviour with special emphasis on the process of decision making at the individual level in the adoption of family planning practices. The first model describes how the adoption process is influenced by factors at three levels: individual, family and society. The second model views adoption behaviour as influenced by the personality of the adopter, practice characteristics, role of influential and change agents. The third model describes the sequential adoption process. Programme implications of these three models for T.V. producers have been discussed. Suggestions have been made on the basis of behavioural science research findings in family planning in India, about the content, and organization of future T.V. programmes for our country. The results discussed in this paper have implications for the diffusion of any method through mass media.

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Working Papers | 1974

Price Behaviour in India - An Explanation Through a Model of Supply and Demand for Money

C Rangarajan

To what extent can changes in money account for changes in price level? The model presented in this paper seeks to explain changes in price level through the divergence between nominal money supply fixed by monetary authorities and warranted money supply determined by changes in real income. After developing the model in detail an attempt is made to test how far such a model explains the behaviour of general price level in India in the past twenty years. The crucial behavioural relations to be estimated in this model was the demand for money in real terms. Three equations were estimated using three variants of the real income variables. These equations together with the changes in real income formed the basis for computing the price indexes. We estimated the price indexes for the period 1950-51 to 1965-66. While the 'preferred variant' of the model performs well in terms of estimating the level of prices it does not perform that well when year to year percentage changes in price level constitute the basis of comparison. Out of 16 years in six years the percentage change in estimated price index differs from the percentage change in actual index by more than 5%.

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Working Papers | 1974

Optimal Investment Planning Model for Power Systems

Mukherjee Shishir K

Availability of adequate and cheap electricity is one of the necessary requirements for industrial and agricultural development and it is also a basic requirement of urban life. Due to very rapid growth of demand for electricity and widespread shortages experienced in India, investment planning in the power sector is of prime importance. As power sector is also highly capital intensive, there is a definite need for determining least-cost investment plans and the use of operations research techniques for choosing the best expansion path from a large number of alternative system expansion plans for power generation. The present paper describes an optimal investment planing model for determining the least-cost expansion plan for generating capacity of a power system under growing demand over a planning horizon of 15 to 25 years. Given projections of future demand for power, the expected shape of the annual load duration curve and relevant capital and operating cost information, a solution of the mixed integer linear programming model would provide the type, capacity and time schedule of commissioning the additional generating plants needed for meeting the given demand with an accepted standard of service in terms of reserve requirements or load-loss probability.

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Working Papers | 1974

Environmental Scanning for Corporate Planning in India

Wadhva Charan D

The need for environmental scanning acquires great policy significance for both the micro-unit and the macro-economy in a developing country like India which is trying to achieve the objectives of economic development and distributional justice simultaneously through national planning. This paper attempts to provide a framework for scanning the external environment of a large industrial enterprise in the private sector in India to help the company in the long term planning of its activities. The impact of international conditions, technological conditions, national economic conditions, social conditions, demographic conditions, political conditions and governmental regulatory conditions impinging upon the existing activities of the company is analysd. Special study is made of the opportunities and constraints imposed by the national priorities set up by the planning authorities of a developing country such as India in her five year plans. The impact of national economic policies in shaping the future of a large enterprise is brought into focus. The likely influence of such policies on the economic development of the nation is briefly discussed.

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Working Papers | 1974

A Network Model for Urban Water Supply System including Desalination and Waster Water Renovation

Mukherjee Shishir K

Most urban areas are facing an ever increasing demand for fresh water due to population and industrial growth. The paper presents a network programming model to evaluate alternatives for supplying water from various sources-treated fresh water, desalinated sea water and renovated waste water-to satisfy future demands for multiple water use in coastal cities at minimum cost. Water demand projections for municipal, industrial, agricultural and recreational use are specified in terms of their geographical locations, quantity and quality specifications for a future data. Costs of water to match these demands from different sources any by desalination and renovation are assumed known. The network programming computer model can accommodate non-linear costs of water development, treatment and conveyance and uses an iterative technique to obtain a minimum cost solution. The network model described is quite general in the sense that it can be applied to other areas such as waste disposal and water pollution control, solid waste management, air pollution control, pipeline optimization and transportation studies.

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Working Papers | 1974

A Network Programming Model with Nonlinear Cost Functions

Mukherjee Shishir K

In this paper, a network programming model with nonlinear cost functions is described along with computer-based algorithms for the solution of the network model. The network model described is general as it can be applied for the optimization of various physical, economic and social systems, e.g. water supply and wastewater system, traffice and transportation system, solid waste handling system, natural gas and petroleum pipelines, communication systems, etc. Realistic nonlinear cost functions reflecting economies-of-scale are use for flow through the area of the system network. The nonlinear cost functions are usually nonconvex in nature, and various complexities are encountered in minimization problems involving these functions, specifically the difficulty of obtaining globally optimum solutions. Two algorithms utilizing approximating iterative schemes developed during an ongoing research project are described in this paper. These algorithms have been applied with success in water supply planning and wastewater treatment and disposal system optimization.

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Working Papers | 1974

Analysis of Disturbances in Gujarat (Jan. 1-28, 1974): The Food Problem and Suggestions

Desai D K

The recent disturbances in Gujarat were analysed and it was observed that the major cause of the disturbances was non-availability of foodgrains from the fair price shops particularly in the urban areas of Gujarat. This happened because both the State and the Central Governments failed to appreciate the acuteness of the problem and could not manage the procurement and distribution of foodgrains. The analysis shows that the disturbances were restricted to the urban areas because after the wheat takeouver the normal channels of foodgrain distribution in the open market had dried up and the public distribution could not supply foodgrains to the vulnerable sections. Suggestions are made how the problem could be tackled in the short run and in the long run.

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Working Papers | 1974

On Deficit Financing

Swamy Dalip

The main conclusion emerging from the analysis is that the inflationary impact of a budget deficit depends upon the method used to finance that deficit. Using a static and a dynamic macroeconomic model it has been shown that the proportion of budget deficit financed by money creation is a crucial determinent of the rate of price inflation. The price inflation will be greater, the higher the proportion of budget deficit financed by money creation. Conditions under which this conclusion holds have derived. A crude empirical test is provided.

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Working Papers | 1974

The Flow of Funds in Indian Manufacturing Sector

Swamy Dalip and Rao V G

An econometric model portraying the behaviour of flow of funds in manufacturing sector has been developed. Given the balance sheets constraint, decisions to acquire physical assets and other decisions about source and allocation of funds are governed by profitability, liquidity and transaction requirements. Based upon these criteria, a self-contained model for explaining the data sources and uses of funds pertaining to the Indian Manufacturing Sector has been developed. It consists of 12 behavioural equations and several identities. The equations are fitted to annual flows of funds related to data over the period 1954 through 1970. Main conclusion of this preliminary investigations are as follows: 1. Profits after tax are not sensitive to changes in capacity utilization rate, but are highly sensitive to changes in sales. 2. There is no evidence of direct effect of changes in interest rates or other monetary policy instruments on the components or internal funds. Interest rates, however, are found to exert pressure on the flow of external funds to the manufacturing sector. 3. Inventory and fixed investment are found to be sensitive to variations in the availability of external funds. Monetary policy affects the manufacturing sector through the funds availability (has a quantity effect) rather than through interest rates (price effect). 4. Liquidity as well as interest cost considerations play important role in determinine the allocation of funds between financial assets, like marketable securities, accounts receivable and cash and bank balances. 5. Thus, fiscal policy, as reflected in terms of tax parameters has a direct impact on the cash f.low position of the manufacturing sector and thereby affects its decisions to invest and hold inventories. Monetary policy affects the portfolio of financial assets and external funds; its effects on the decisions to invest and hold stocks are only indirect and remote.

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Working Papers | 1974

Operations Research in National and Multi-Level Planning

Mukherjee Shishir K

A rapid increase in the productivity of all sectors is required in developing countries for the betterment of their people and removal of abysmal poverty. This may be achieved through the institution of planning at the national, sectoral and regional levels. Proper choice of projects to be included in the plan, their location and regional distribution play an important role in increasing the productivity of planned sectors of the economy and in the development of various regions. This paper discusses the application of operations research models in the dual hierarchial framework by regions and sectors of a national economy. A class of computational techniques known as decomposition methods exhibit hierarchical problem structure quite similar to the multi-level planning problem. Detailed sectoral models or regional models involving project selection and spatial details could be integrated into a balanced national plan using such a planning and computational framework. An analysis of the various commodities produced would indicate the level at which project decisions for that commodity should be undertaken. The partial decomposition of more amenable to the application of operations research models for project selection and optimization.

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