22/07/2021
Pandemic Panic? Effects of Health System Capacity on Firm Confidence During COVID-19
Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Sanket Mohapatra
Working Papers
In this study, we examine the impact of health system capacity and government responses on firms' business confidence in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a sample of firm-level data from 53 countries, we find that ex ante proactive measures - such as health spending by the public and private sectors and availability of medical staff - have a favorable impact on the firms' perceptions of risk and sentiment. This effect reduces as the number of COVID-19 cases rise, possibly as a result of the drain on a country's health resources. We also find that the ex post reactive measures - such as health and containment actions, and the overall quality of government response - also play a role in bolstering business confidence. These effects vary by firm size and the level of development of the economy, and are largely impervious to prior epidemic experience.