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Working Papers | 2015

Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network

Anindya S. Chakrabarti

At the country level, macroeconomic volatility tends to correlate with trade openness although the direction of correlation is not stable across samples. Here I consider trade networks as sum of all pairwise trade linkages to emphasize that different linkages contribute differently to the transmission or mitigation of shocks, and show that across the network volatility is inversely related to centrality, a summary measure of strength of the linkages specific to a country. I study a multi-country, multi-sector trade model
subject to idiosyncratic productivity and liquidity shocks, and characterize volatility as an explicit function of centrality, diversification and the Herfindahl of the trade network in equilibrium. With sufficient skewness in trade linkages across countries, similar shocks generate different levels of repercussions across the network. The conventional effect of diversification holds true that countries with better diversified portfolio fluctuate less compared. Centrality directly contributes to better aggregation of shocks. Combined effect of these two channels dominates the opposite effect that a more central country is also more exposed to shocks. The model calibrated to the E.U. generates and closely replicates the negative relationship between centrality and volatility. The
theoretical model is then extended to capture stochasticity and sparsity in the trade networks.

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Working Papers | 2015

Stochastic Lotka-Volterra equations: A model of lagged diffusion of technology in an interconnected world

Anindya S. Chakrabarti

We present a model of technological evolution due to interaction between multiple countries and the resultant effects on the corresponding
macro variables. The world consists of a set of economies where some countries are leaders and some are followers in the technology ladder. All of them potentially gains from technological breakthroughs. Applying the famous Lotka-Volterra equations to model the evolution of technology frontier, we show that the way technology diffuses creates
repercussions in the partner economies. This process captures the spill-over effects on major macro variables seen in the current highly globalized world due to trickle-down effects of technology.

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Working Papers | 2015

Economic incentives versus institutional frictions: migration dynamics within Europe

Anindya S. Chakrabarti and Aparna Dutta

The immobility puzzle in European Union takes the form that the observed level of migration
within Europe is substantially less than is expected in an union which allows free labor mobility, indicating that there are possibly institutional barriers inhibiting migration. In order to pin down the missing mass of migrants, we propose a theory of cross-region migration in a multi-region setting with heterogeneity in sectoral compositions, productivity and endowments of productive inputs. Migration arises as the result of adjustment process of workers in response to uneven region and sector-specific shocks in factor productivity. When tested on U.S. which we consider to be a benchmark for institutional homogeneity, this model explains substantial part of variability in both the nominal and the relative levels of state-to-state migration. However, for Europe, the model explains the relative
ow network well but predicts a higher nominal
ow than is seen in the data illustrating the puzzle. Following the hypothesis that heterogeneity across European countries in institutional factors induce a friction on such labor reallocation process driven by economic incentives, we use dyadic regression to analyze the effects of pair-wise institutional distances which broadly captures various types of socio-cultural and political differences between countries, on the missing mass of migrants. Linguistic differences appear to be an important factor explaining the gap.

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Working Papers | 2015

Inflationary effects of monetary policies in newly industrialized economies with cross-sectoral labor and capital immobility

Anindya S. Chakrabarti

This paper studies the effects of monetary policies in newly industrialized economies characterized by extremely low level of labor and capital mobility between urban and rural sectors. Policies are executed in the urban sector
which sends waves of adjustments in the rest of the economy. I show that with liquidity constraints and immobility in labor and capital, the sector-
specific effects are markedly different from those in a one-sector economy. In particular, they are asymmetric and the rural sector lags behind the urban sector during the adjustment process. This explains temporary phases of significantly high inflaction with uneven sectoral effects which often accompany major reforms in the banking and monetary institutions of such economies,
e.g. in case of India. Finally, as the consumption patterns alter in such an economy undergoing structural changes, the sectoral distribution of liquidity is affected inducing dissimilar responses to shocks, both within and between sectors.

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Working Papers | 2015

Consumer Rights in the New Economy: Amending the Consumer Protection Act, 1986

Akhileshwar Pathak

Liberalisation and globalisation of the India economy, inaugurated in 1990, ushered in a qualitatively different economy. In these decades, there has been expansion of goods and services; diversification in the means of reaching the consumer; proliferation of trade practices; coming in of e-commerce; vigorous sales promotion; and aggressive advertising. The persona of a consumer has undergone a transformation. The legislative regime for protection of consumer needs reform. The government has suggested changes in the Consumer Protection Act, 1986. Taking this as the context, the article reviews the proposed amendments and identifies further areas for amendment. The article has identified four overarching aspects of consumer rights for review, unfair terms in contracts; unfair trade practices; commerce through online platforms; and definition of consumer.

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Working Papers | 2015

Dynamic Pricing of Electricity: A Survey of Related Research

Goutam Dutta and Krishnendranath Mitra

In this paper, we survey 82 papers related to revenue management and dynamic pricing of electricity and lists future research avenues in this field. Dynamic pricing has the potential to modify electric load profiles by charging different prices at different demand levels and hence can act as an effective demand side management tool. There are different forms of dynamic prices that can be offered to different markets and customers. Forecasting of demand, and demand price relationship play an important role in determining prices and helps in scheduling load in dynamic pricing environments. Consumers' willingness-to-pay for electricity services is also necessary in setting price limits. Elasticity of demand is an indication of the demand response to changing prices. Market segmentation can enhance the effects of such pricing schemes. Appropriate scheduling of electrical load enhances the consumer response to dynamic tariffs.

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Working Papers | 2015

A Note on Estimating Variance of Finite Population Distribution Function

Sumanta Adhya, Tathagata Banerjee, and Gouranga Chattopadhyay

Estimating finite population distribution function is an important problem to the survey samplers since it summarizes almost all the relevant information of interest about the finite population. Moreover due to its nonlinearity estimation of variance of estimators of distribution function remains an active area of research since Chambers et al., 1992. Both analytic and resampling-based variance estimators are developed earlier. Here we poropse a bootstrap hybrid variance estimator of model-based semi-patametric estimator of finite population distribution function estimator. We prove its consistency and also show that its numerical performances are superior to analytical estimator.

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Working Papers | 2015

How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India?
Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio

Ravindra H. Dholakia and Kadiyala Sri Virinchi

Methods followed in earlier studies for estimating the sacrifice ratio or the real cost of deliberate disinflation have focused only on aggregate supply side ignoring aggregate demand. The present study considers the adjustment path obtained as a locus of short run equilibria to arrive at a theoretically acceptable sacrifice ratio. The study uses quarterly data from the period between 1996-97Q1--2013-14Q4 in India and employs both the regression as well as the direct methods to estimate the ratio. The results have revealed a sacrifice ratio ranging from 1.7 to 3.8 depending on the method and the measure of inflation used. Such a magnitude of the real cost of disinflation in India, also relevant in the long run, clearly contradict the dominant view among policymakers that the trade-off, if any, is negligible. Deliberate disinflation policy needs to consider the real cost of sacrificing output and employment particularly when its magnitude is substantial.

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Working Papers | 2015

Specialist Services in the Indian Rural Public Health System for Maternal and Child Healthcare – A Study of Four States

Shreekant Iyengar and Ravindra H. Dholakia

The present study attempts to examine the role of specialist services in rural public health system of India in the areas of maternal and child healthcare. The study uses primary data collected through a survey of doctors and paramedical staff working at public health facilities regarding availability and quality of the specialist services in gynaecology, paediatrics and anaesthesia. The study discusses in detail the aspects of infrastructure, manpower and operational challenges faced in effective provisioning of specialist services through the rural health facilities of four largest states-Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP). The findings of the survey reveal significant dearth of specialist doctors with their concentration at the district level. Moreover, there are severe misallocations of the specialist doctors and, lack of manpower support, equipment and basic infrastructure within the public health system causing serious challenges in effective provisioning of specialist services for maternal and child healthcare. Lastly, the efforts made by the government for providing additional manpower support for these services are also not giving desired results.

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Working Papers | 2015

Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Ordinance 2014: A Process Perspective

G. Raghuram and Simy Sunny

This paper captures the policy processes leading to the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (RFCTLARR) Ordinance, 2014. It maps the role and the influence of the three primary stakeholders - Government, industry and landowners - at various stages of the evolution of the land acquisition law in India. Land acquisition has remained a controversial issue in India resulting in conflicts between social, economic and political structures. The RFCTLARR Act 2013 was an attempt by the earlier Government to provide a fair deal to the landowners who had suffered due to the weak framework of the Land Acquisition Act, 1894. The Government also had one year until December 31, 2014 to decide on whether 13 Special Acts which had land acquisition privileges should come under this Act or be exempted. However, the Act soon faced resistance from the industry due to the impact of clauses like social impact assessment, rehabilitation and resettlement, and consent requirements on projects done in public interest. After constant pressure from the industry and consultations from the State Governments, the new Government finally brought in amendments to the 2013 Act. Given the one year deadline and the washout of the winter session of Parliament, it brought in the amendment through an ordinance.

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